The future of work in the green transition

Evidence from ETF research in countries neighbouring the European Union

Francesca Rosso, ETF

This article outlines the challenges and opportunities that the green transition brings to the global job market. It stresses the need for an education system that not only meets but also foresees the skills needed in a greener economy. The idea is simple: a successful green transition relies on a workforce that is skilled, diverse and able to keep up with the demands of sustainability. But what skills do we need and how can we develop them? Experience gained through recent ETF work on the future of skills sheds some light on the changes to come and how we can prepare for them.

✅ 1. Introduction

The green transition, defined as the global shift towards a sustainable and low-carbon economy, is driving profound changes in the labour market and skill demands across countries. Fuelled by the triple needs of combating climate change, achieving environmental sustainability and complying with international agreements, the green transition presents both challenges and opportunities for the workforce. Understanding and anticipating the evolving skill requirements is crucial for preparing current and future workers to thrive in this new economy.

The green transition implies a transformation of all economic activities and sectors – as well as lifestyles – to significantly limit the emission of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases, to restore and protect the environment and to shift to a circular economy that neither wastes nor pollutes and is decoupled from carbon. New green skills [1] In this chapter, the terms ‘green skills’ and ‘skills for the green transition’ are used interchangeably.encompass not only the technical abilities required for specific jobs but also the competences, knowledge and attitudes essential for individuals to live in a more sustainable manner. This transformation can only be achieved by mobilising all of society, with actors taking responsibility, contributing and collaborating towards a shared model of environmental sustainability and social fairness, while also ensuring resilient economies.

International agreements like the Paris Agreement and UN follow-up actions [2] E.g. the Community of Partners (COP) meetings and the Agenda 2030 with its Sustainable Development Goals – SDGs. , European policies such as the European Green Deal and its package of policy initiatives, and national policies that are supported by civil society movements and technological innovation have effectively launched the green transition for most countries in and around Europe. However, national commitments and sectorial priorities to implement the Paris Agreement tend to underestimate the role of skills development. Skills are only rarely included in concrete measures and plans to support the green transition. Human capital is often overlooked as an element of paving the way for a more just and sustainable future. This not only increases skills shortages, but also a skills mismatch: new technologies emerge at high speed and most companies report difficulties in recruiting people who possess the right skills for the jobs available. This is a subject of primary concern in the European Union, but it is also valid for countries beyond the EU.

On the other hand, only a fraction of workers participate in the formal or non-formal training which is needed to meet the new requirements. This is the case not only in OECD countries, where only around four in ten adults participate in upskilling or reskilling programmes (OECD, 2023), but it is even more pronounced in developing and transition contexts, where this percentage is much lower. This hampers the possibilities for workers to reallocate from sectors and occupations that are or will be shrinking into those which are expected to grow in the future.

The evolving skills demand necessitates a proactive approach to education and training to equip individuals with the technical skills required in new green occupations. Furthermore, lifelong learning and upskilling are paramount to ensure the adaptability of the workforce in a dynamic job market.

To set up and design modern and relevant education and training systems, it is essential to map the new skills and occupational profiles that are expected to emerge. This is because the green transition will not happen if people are not equipped with the right skills to grasp new opportunities emerging in the market. Forward-looking skills strategies, based on solid data about new jobs, occupations and tasks in old jobs are necessary to train youth and reskill adults to meet the demand generated from the green transition across economic sectors. Such skills intelligence is critical to providing information on new skills needs and informing education and training authorities, so that policies can be adapted accordingly.

The ETF has devoted much attention to the changing contexts and the new skills needs emerging across EU neighbouring countries in the context of the green transition. Its research shows that both technical skills (skills that enable professionals to effectively use green technologies and processes) and transversal skills (sustainability competences [3] Environmental sustainability competence comprises the knowledge, skills, attitudes and values that are critical to promoting environmental sustainability. It helps individuals to tackle environmental challenges, adopt practice in their work and everyday life that promotes environmental sustainability, prepare for future green jobs and be environmentally thoughtful consumers (OECD, 2023., including knowledge, skills and attitudes that allow people to work and live in a more sustainable manner) are needed across countries to enable the green transition. Within occupations, there is a set of core and technical skills that are potentially transferable from declining to growing industries, but more relevant initial education and upskilling and reskilling schemes are needed to help workers to acquire new skills. At the same time, skills such as critical thinking and problem-solving, as well as an understanding of ecological and social sustainability need to be included in curricula of all levels of education to allow students to innovate and operate in a sustainable economy.
🧩 2. The evolving definitions of green jobs and skills

In the discourse surrounding the green transition and its implications for employment and skill sets, it is imperative to start with a rigorous analysis of the terminologies associated with green jobs and the skills needed for the green transition. In this emerging field of research, various organisations have adopted a number of definitions and methodological approaches to analyse the two concepts. This heterogeneity in analytical frameworks leads to considerable differences in the outcomes of studies regarding the quantification of green jobs and the delineation of necessary green skills. Accordingly, the degree of 'greenness' attributed to various job profiles can vary significantly, depending on whether incorporated skills are deemed or defined as 'green'. Therefore, consensus on a unified and standardised understanding of green jobs and green skills remains elusive among international scholars and institutions. Difficulties in adopting a common definition are even more pronounced internationally, including among countries neighbouring the EU. Instead, there is an observable evolution – and occasionally, expansion – of green skills.

According to the ILO definition, "green jobs are decent jobs that contribute to preserve or restore the environment, be they in traditional sectors such as manufacturing and construction or in new, emerging green sectors such as renewable energy and energy efficiency". They are divided into two categories:

✅ jobs that design and produce goods or provide services that benefit the environment, such as green buildings, clean transportation and renewable energy, sustainable food;

✅ jobs that contribute to more environmentally friendly processes in the production of any product or service, e.g. increasing water or energy efficiency, improving recycling systems.

However, the definition of green jobs is not straightforward. The OECD, for instance, distinguishes between three approaches to identify them (OECD, 2023):

✅ top-down approaches that identify sectors or industries that are green and consider all employment in those sectors as green;

✅ bottom-up approaches looking at occupations;

✅ macroeconomic approaches.

The definition of green jobs is then based on the skills or tasks required by the different occupations and the extent to which they are green: in fact, major differences in definition determine very different shares of green jobs in the different countries, ranging for instance in the EU from 2% as measured by Eurostat in 2022, and 40% using a task-based approach.

In the majority of EU Member States, there is no national definition of ‘green jobs’. A mix of economy-wide assessment, sector-based approaches and task-based approaches can be observed (European Commission, 2023). In fact, while a broad EU definition of green jobs has been proposed by Cedefop and a list of green skills can be found in the European Classification of Occupations, Skills and Competences (ESCO), in practice most Member States use multiple definitions, alongside international terminology.

When it comes to skills, according to the definition agreed within the Inter-Agency Working Group on Work-based Learning [4], skills for the green transition are ‘skills and competences but also knowledge abilities, values and attitudes needed to live, work and act in resource-efficient and sustainable economies and societies’. In this definition, the diverse nature of skills for the green transition stands out clearly, with an emphasis on citizens (even before they are workers) and across sectors and economic activities. With reference to technical green skills, these are skills ‘required to adapt or implement standards, processes, services, products and technologies to protect ecosystems and biodiversity, and to reduce energy, materials and water consumption’ (European Commission, 2023a). Within the EU, Cedefop has identified a set of ‘generic green skills’ in the area of cognitive competences. These include soft and technical skills.

The European Sustainability Competence Framework (GreenComp) emerges as a pivotal reference in establishing a consensus on the definition of sustainability competences. These are not merely technical and transversal skills required for the green transition. In fact, GreenComp emphasises the knowledge, attitudes and values essential for every individual to embrace sustainable living. Its core objective is to cultivate a sustainability mindset, equipping individuals with the necessary knowledge, skills and attitudes to engage in empathetic, responsible and planet-conscious thinking, planning, and action (JRC, 2022b). Serving as a foundational framework, it aids learners by providing direction and support to educational and training institutions in their efforts to impart teachings centred around green and environmental sustainability. Applicable to all types of learners across various educational settings, GreenComp is structured around twelve competences divided into four key domains: embodying sustainability values, embracing the complexities of sustainability, envisioning sustainable futures, and actively contributing to sustainability.

However, the differentiation between the ‘green jobs’ and ‘green skills and competences’ is not clear-cut in analyses of skills for the green transition. In the ESCO database, a total of 571 skills and knowledge concepts across different industry sectors are labelled as ‘green’. It includes 381 skills, 185 knowledge concepts and five transversal skills. Examples of ‘green skills’ include the skill to conduct energy audits, the skill to measure the sustainability of tourism activities and the skill to train staff on recycling programmes. Examples of ‘green knowledge’ concepts include emission standards and ecological principles. ‘Green transversal skills’ include, for instance, the skill to evaluate the environmental impact of personal behaviour and the skill to adopt ways of boosting biodiversity and animal welfare. By classifying the green transition in the labour market in terms of technical and transferable skills needs, the taxonomy is intended to support upskilling and reskilling, as well as the statistical monitoring of the greening of professions.

This classification of green skills helps to understand overall green skills demand in the analysis of online job vacancies. If, for example, a job vacancy includes at least one green skill among all other requested skills, the vacancy is considered a ‘light’ or ‘medium’ green job. As such, there are different degrees of ‘greenness’ in many jobs and depending on how one categorises these degrees, the results of analyses change accordingly.

The Skills OVATE tool developed by Cedefop is another tool for identifying the share of jobs requiring green(er) skills. The tool is a source of detailed information on jobs offered and skills demanded by employers, based on online job vacancies from the EU Member States. In a similar fashion, the ETF Big Data project for labour market analysis created ‘green skills’ dashboards [5] for six countries (Ukraine, Georgia, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, and Kenya) using the ESCO skills taxonomy.
🌍 3. The demand for green jobs and required skills

According to the European Environment Agency, employment in the EU’s environmental goods and services sector grew at a faster rate than the overall EU employment rate over the last decade. It increased from 2.1% of total employment in 2010 to 2.5% in 2020, with the number of full-time equivalent employees in this sector reaching 5.1 million. This growth was primarily driven by job creation in renewable energy, energy efficiency and waste management.

Cedefop’s Skills OVATE indicates that, in the EU, occupations with high and medium green transition skills intensity account for around 40% of the total stock of online job ads – 14% and 26% respectively between 2020 and 2022 (Cedefop, 2023a). At the same time ETF Big Data analysis shows that the highest shares of green jobs are in sustainable energy (over half), in the sustainable economy (nearly 15%), and in environment and sustainable tourism (11%).

In the EU, the green transition is estimated to lead to a net increase in jobs (JRC, 2021; European Commission, 2023a). The latest data from the European Commission suggest that aligning with the climate goals of the European Green Deal could generate an additional 884,000 jobs in the EU by 2030, provided it is accompanied by suitable supporting policies (European Commission, 2023b). This estimate accounts for job losses in sectors such as coal mining or polluting industries, and job growth in others, like renewable energy and the circular economy, with a realignment of employment between different economic sectors [6].
Recent research shows that employment in jobs and occupations with a high level of greenness and digitalisation, has significantly increased between 2011 and 2022 in the European Union. This positive relationship between employment and the level of greenness is mainly apparent in agriculture, energy and water management. Projections show an expected growth of green jobs (elementary occupations) and jointly green and digital jobs (technicians and associate professionals) during the period 2022-2035 (Koundouri et al., 2023).

Similarly, the literature on developing and transition countries points to net job creation as a result of environmental transition, albeit with variation across different countries and regions. Globally, IRENA found that the renewable energy sector alone employed 13.7 million people, both directly and indirectly, in 2022, up from 7.3 million in 2012. IRENA estimates that the large-scale investment required to meet climate objectives could create many millions of additional jobs in the coming decades (IRENA, 2023a).

At the same time, labour shortages are observed in sectors crucial to the green transition, including transportation and storage, water supply, sewerage, renewable energies, energy storage and waste management (European Commission, 2023b).

Furthermore, according to LinkedIn data covering 48 countries and 930 million users of the platform globally, the demand for 'green' jobs is growing almost twice as quickly as the availability of workers equipped with the necessary skills to fill these positions. According to LinkedIn's Global Green Skills Report 2023 (LinkedIn, 2023a), only one in eight individuals possesses skills relevant to mitigating the climate crisis, with women facing a significant shortfall [7]. Data from LinkedIn reveals that from 2022 to 2023, the proportion of talent equipped to contribute to solving the climate crisis increased by 12.3%. In contrast, job postings requiring at least one green skill surged by nearly double that rate, at 22.4%, during the same timeframe. Consequently, individuals possessing green skills had a 29% higher likelihood of being employed compared to the average hiring rate across all sectors, underscoring the growing demand for environmentally skilled workers.

Green jobs will proliferate across countries and sectors and the environmental transition will affect a wide range of existing occupations (EY, 2023). Entirely new occupations will emerge and many traditional roles will experience significant tasks changes, necessitating a shift towards more sustainable practices (European Commission, 2023a). Hence, skills emerge as a key pillar of the green transition and, consequently, competitiveness and growth.

Recent international research highlights the evolution and expansion of skills needed for the green transition, focusing on sustainability, digital technologies and innovative approaches to education and training (Moon, 2021; Sern et al., 2018) also underlining the need for both specific technical capabilities and broader competences such as management, innovation, and sustainability awareness. These skills are critical for supporting sustainable development, addressing environmental challenges, and ensuring the success of green initiatives across various sectors.
🍀 4. ETF work on the future of skills in the context of the green transition

In 2019, the ETF initiated the development of a new methodology to monitor and document the evolution of skills demand driven by new technologies and the green transition, primarily within EU neighbouring countries. A pioneering approach, this methodology combines natural language algorithms with traditional research methods. The algorithms are instrumental in extracting information on emerging skills needs from patent databases and bibliographical sources.

The ETF methodology marks a significant advance in data utilisation and analysis, addressing a critical knowledge gap by complementing conventional empirical research methods. By establishing correlations between concepts and distilling prevalent trends, this methodology adeptly identifies signals and emerging trends in the skills landscape. Importantly, it provides granular information on emerging skills requirements, thereby serving as a valuable resource for policy development. The integration of text mining and more conventional approaches to skills analysis – covering literature reviews, statistical data analysis, company surveys and semi-structured interviews with stakeholders – is what sets this methodology apart. This combination offers valuable insights into how various sectors should adapt to meet their future skills needs.

Conceptually, by identifying drivers of change, the methodology identifies the skills that align with those driving factors. In practice, distinct technology clusters are identified, after which skill sets associated with each technology grouping are mapped. This approach effectively demystifies technology, no longer treating it as an enigmatic black box (ETF, 2024). Moreover, the ETF methodology extends its scope to non-technological drivers of change, such as demographics, macroeconomics and environmental factors, which are thoughtfully integrated into the analytical framework. Using the European Skills, Competences, Qualifications, and Occupations (ESCO) framework, the skills linked to these driving forces and technologies are mapped to identify the jobs where they are likely to be required. This comprehensive approach gives policymakers and stakeholders valuable insights for informed decision-making and skills development strategies.

The methodology was tested, refined and applied in a series of case studies undertaken in eight countries, covering one sector in each country. These were:

📍 Israel: agri-tech

📍 Morocco: agri-food

📍 Tunisia: energy

📍 Albania: energy

📍 Türkiye: automotive

📍 Ukraine: healthcare

📍 Armenia: construction

📍 Egypt: energy

The studies reveal that sustainability runs like a red thread through all sectors, mostly in the form of a desire to reduce energy consumption and waste levels. Obviously, this was a core skill requirement in the energy sector, where the shift to renewable energy sources was underway across all countries, but it was also evident in agriculture, construction and the automotive sector. The next section details evidence gathered from these studies, including the identified drivers of change, related new jobs, occupations and tasks emerging in the market, and the skills needed to perform them.

Since 2020, green principles and practices in national development strategies and education and training provision have been mapped. This exercise showed that, in most cases, the skills component is not incorporated into green strategies or industrial policies. Skills are simply not recognised as critical to powering the green transition. The ETF mapping also revealed that there is a lot of good practice in many countries that is not being mainstreamed.

These are all issues that need to be addressed to ensure that green skills become a catalytic asset rather than remaining an impediment to countries’ growth and development.
💚 5. Identified drivers of green change

Major drivers of change that lead to new skills needs in different sectors include climate change, environmental policies and regulations, new and more affordable green technologies, increased environmental awareness and consumers’ demand for cleaner goods and services. These drivers impact occupations by creating new green jobs and tasks, and skills needed to perform those new jobs or tasks.

To monitor trends over time, drivers of change must be analysed in clusters or families, as they tend to be linked and influence each other. For instance, there are connections between climate change and renewable energies, both of which relate to new technologies such as those associated with solar panels. These connections affect skills needs across occupations and skills levels. To illustrate this, figure 1 provides examples of drivers of change identified through text mining in the agri-tech sector in Israel.

Figure 1. Drivers of change identified from text-mined keywords in the agri-tech sector in Israel (ETF, 2020)

The drivers highlighted below are drawn from the ETF’s comprehensive 'Future of Skills' studies across various economic sectors. These key drivers have been identified as pivotal forces shaping the current and future landscape of jobs and occupations within the context of the green transition context.

Energy and resource efficiency is becoming increasingly important, especially after the energy crisis that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Companies in several countries have introduced improved energy efficiency systems and have started using, or considering the use of, alternative energy sources such as solar and wind. Energy production from biomass will also increase, partly due to a heightened awareness of the need to reduce waste from production processes. Improvements in the use of resources, efficiency and waste management will also be introduced in logistics, together with techniques, such as organic farming, which help to reduce emissions and the environmental impact of crops, improve soil and water quality, lower energy consumption and improve energy efficiency.

Three case studies covered the energy sectors of Albania, Egypt and Tunisia. Their energy systems have very different characteristics, particularly in terms of energy mix and strategic objectives. Yet, the technological drivers of change are the same for these three countries. All are shifting towards more sustainable, renewable energy sources, with the broader common objective of diversifying their energy mix (ETF 2022a, 2022b, 2023b). There is an increasing focus in all countries on bringing in wind turbines, solar energy (both photovoltaic and collectors), biofuel production and, particularly in Egypt, hydrogen production. Technological developments also make fossil fuel usage more sustainable, from new technologies for oil and gas extraction to transportation and refinery (ETF, 2024). All these changes require new skills to perform jobs and tasks linked to improving energy, material and resource efficiency, and reducing the carbon footprint and social impact. New jobs also emerge to monitor these carbon footprints and innovations linked to production, transmission and distribution.

Energy efficiency also emerges as a key driver of change in other economic sectors. For instance, in the construction sector in Armenia, energy efficiency, resource conservation and waste reduction are issues that trigger substantial changes. The construction sector contributes to the sustainability agenda through numerous strategies that improve energy efficiency in design, materials and construction techniques. The so-called ‘green building activity’ continues to rise to prominence and is driven by both environmental regulations to reduce carbon emissions and client demands to create healthier buildings.

Green buildings are also entering the political agenda, for example with the introduction of an assessment standard for green construction in Armenia (ETF, 2023a). At the same time, natural events, such as avalanches, earthquakes, wildfires, flooding or drought also affect construction methods. While earthquakes are a specific threat in Armenia, other natural events are also of concern and have implications for the construction sector. For example, floods, mudflow and landslides are recurrent in various areas of the country, affecting around 40,000 people every year. These events are exacerbated by climatic conditions and made worse by improper territory management and insufficient containment works. The risk of disasters resulting from these drivers is likely to increase as the severity and frequency of extreme climate events rise (ETF, 2023a). Hence, there is a need to construct buildings and infrastructures in a different, more resistant manner.

Emerging technologies and digitalisation also strongly influence the green transition across economic sectors. In the agri-food sector in Morocco, for instance, ETF analysis of patent data suggests that innovation in irrigation systems, biochemistry, pesticides and fertilisers is relatively commonplace and likely to bring about future change in the sector. There are also a range of other technologies and technological processes which are important for the sector, such as solar thermal devices (solar collectors, heating devices, heat carriers), telemetry for reducing energy consumption and machines for precision farming.

Aridity and water scarcity figured high in the drivers of change affecting different economic sectors across countries. Severe droughts severely impact agricultural production and precision agriculture and efficient water management become key elements of ensuring environmental sustainability. This influences the type of cultures and crops grown, with a preference for those that consume less water and are more resistant to water scarcity. This imposes the adoption of innovations, such as the development of new irrigation technologies that allow for more efficient use of water, such as drip irrigation. Wells can be used to avoid drawing water directly from the main supply. New varieties of plants can be grown that have higher resistance to water stress (ETF, 2020).

In Morocco and Israel, the ETF research identified commonalities in technologies introduced because both countries face similar challenges such as aridity, land productivity and waste management. However, the countries responded differently due to their varying level of innovation potential and their different eco-systems. In Israel, a strong national innovation culture supported the development and take-up of new technologies, which in turn opened business opportunities, both domestically and internationally. Although they were originally developed to deal with climate change and water scarcity, new technologies also provided market opportunities to be capitalised upon. In contrast, Morocco’s innovation eco-system was less developed and it was acknowledged that Morocco’s large group of smaller producers would need substantial support to take advantage of the opportunities brought by new technologies and to avoid the negative consequences of not keeping pace with change (ETF 2021c).

The need to manage water scarcity was one of the key drivers of change in the agriculture sector but was also found to reverberate in other sectors such as energy. Concerns over water shortages, for example, have a profound impact on energy diversification in Albania and Egypt, both of which have a large hydropower sector.

Change in consumer tastes and greater environmental awareness were also found to strongly affect the pace of the green transition. Lifestyle changes and consumer preferences opened up new market opportunities, especially new demands for quality and cleaner, safer products in agri-food, more environmentally friendly solutions in the automotive sector and more energy-efficient materials and technologies in construction, textile and craft.

In the automotive sector in Türkiye, for instance, the introduction of new, predominantly green, technologies is considered the most relevant driver of change for the sector. The shift to new types of vehicles, particularly electric and smart cars, is reorienting the focus of Turkish companies. The rise of electric and hybrid cars is clearly craven by the need to reduce emissions, but the entire industry is called on to embrace more sustainable production (ETF, 2021b). For example, circular economy strategies and the adoption of recyclable materials (and even the use of recycled components) are also key drivers for the sector and enhance its value proposition. Research into new materials also plays an important role. Such research is often propelled by the demands of electric mobility, such as lightweight components, new lithium batteries, carriers that allow batteries to be isolated from water, heat and vibration, new types of powertrains, fuel cells that can replace batteries, etc. According to many stakeholders, these new trends have the potential to completely disrupt and reshape the sector’s production and business models.

New consumer tastes and demands are closely linked to the introduction of numerous standards and regulations concerning quality, performance and safety, which have affected different sectors, including the automotive industry. Still with reference to the Türkiye research, it emerged clearly that the adoption of technologies is not only linked to software, hardware and communication systems, but is often prompted by the introduction of various applications and regulations, particularly those concerned with environmental standards. Due to the close trade relationships between Türkiye and countries that have high environmental standards, notably in the European Union, and its involvement in global value chains, compliance with environmental regulations becomes not only a competitive advantage but also a necessity for the continued growth of the sector (ETF, 2021b). Specific government incentives, such as the recent effort to support electric vehicle production by local Turkish brands, represent an attempt to strengthen the national competitive advantage with respect to the electric revolution.

Policies and regulations also drive change in other sectors, such as construction. As demonstrated by the example of Armenia, most policies in this sector aim at improving energy efficiency, harmonising urban development with the natural environment and increasing health and safety. For instance, these policies promote the use of materials that are more environmentally friendly, safer, less polluting, offer better insulation, and provide greater resistance to extreme weather conditions.

Last but not least, new development models, based on green technologies and sustainable development, can become profitable niches for countries that are in transition or undergoing development, with benefits for both market positioning and job creation. Public policies can provide important incentives in this direction and lead to a true systemic change. In Morocco, the Generation Green plan is the governmental plan for the development of the agriculture sector up to 2030. It sets ambitious targets for organic farming, aiming for higher quality and healthier foods with a reduced environmental impact, achieved by avoiding the use of fertilisers and chemicals in the soil. Companies are gradually implementing green strategies and moving towards healthier and more environmentally respectful solutions (ETF, 2021c).

🌱 6. The green transition in developing and transition countries
Skills needs are emerging in response to a range of external drivers of change. In the context of the green transition, these include all the drivers mentioned in the previous section. From their convergence, ETF research on the future of work in different economic sectors has pinpointed the emergence of new occupations, tasks and skills catalysed by the digital and green transitions, unveiling four key insights.

Greening is a fundamental driver of change

Initial assumptions on the future of work in developing and transition countries seemed to suggest that digitalisation and automation were the main factors influencing the labour market and different economic sectors. The ETF research on the topic reversed this assumption, demonstrating that several other factors driving are driving changes in the labour market, including trade, global value chains, new technologies, digital tools and, importantly, the greening of the economies and climate change. The latter is a fundamental driver of change in all countries. In some cases, sustainable development underpins national strategies and is meant to set the way framework for new development models. As mentioned, this is the case in the agri-food sector of Morocco, where the new national strategy for agricultural development is fully based on the principles of sustainability and carbon footprint reduction.

The green transition affects all countries

The ETF work showed that the green transition affects not only countries with more developed socio-economic conditions, but also developing and transition countries. Many EU neighbouring countries are already on the path of digital and green transformation. Often, they are creators of innovation, not only recipients. While there is marked variation among countries and sectors, the analysis of patents and other innovations taught that countries are producing green technology innovation across different economic sectors, both modern and traditional. The case of the agri-food sector in Morocco and the construction sector in Armenia are good examples. Both countries are patenting new technologies in their respective sectors, indicating rapid changes and consequent shifts in skills needs.

The green transition affects most sectors

The green transition influences a broad spectrum of sectors, extending well beyond those traditionally linked to environmental initiatives, such as the energy sector, to also include sectors not typically associated with greening efforts. Green drivers of change are reshaping skills needs and jobs emerging from these sectors or likely to emerge in the future. For instance, in EU neighbouring countries, renewable energy is becoming a very important source of jobs. Construction is also gradually becoming more sustainable, despite the sector’s many conflicting goals and complex challenges. Parts of manufacturing, such as the automotive sector, are progressively shifting towards the production of green products, propelled by new consumer demands and a greater environmental awareness. In the agriculture sector, which is a major source of employment in many transition and developing countries, significant changes are going on too, transforming it from a sector of traditional technologies to one that is based on the use of more modern tools to save energy and (natural) resources. The capacity of the different sectors to drive growth depends on human capital and skills that facilitate the shift to more effective, environmentally sustainable production systems, and improved marketing and distribution which will allow better access to international markets.

The green transition affects all skill levels

Importantly, the ETF research emphasised the impact of the green transition across all skill levels. Previous research had suggested that the impact of new technologies, such as those related to greening production, would be limited to high-end professions only, with the majority of jobs remaining unaffected. In contrast, the impact is much more pervasive, with technology-related occupations as well as business services and related occupations profoundly affected by green technology change. Therefore, the need for relevant skills is greater at all levels.
- 🪴 6.1 New jobs, occupations, tasks and skills needs
  The ETF research indicates that the green transition has produced new jobs and is likely keep producing new jobs in the future. Existing occupations are also evolving, introducing new tasks, as well as new ways to perform traditional jobs. This shift suggests that, in the future, most jobs will be performed in a different way, which has clear implications for upskilling and reskilling.
  
  The research also found that a limited number of traditional occupations is likely to disappear, due to substitution or obsolescence.
  
  Further analysis revealed a growing preference for professionals who are highly specialised in one specific technology or area, yet also capable of applying their expertise across various roles. This skill set is known as the 'T-shape' profile (ETF, 2024). Such individuals possess deep knowledge in at least one discipline and a broad understanding across several others (ETF, 2021d).
  
  There appears to be a critical need for a multidisciplinary approach that connects different sectors and fosters the integration of functions across the value chain. Examples include integrating agricultural sciences with medicine or computer science and roles where technical expertise is complemented by soft skills, such as business development, customer services, sales, supplier management and sustainability competences. Future workers will need not only proficiency in their primary discipline but also a comprehensive understanding of additional fields. Job roles are becoming increasingly complex and dynamic, evolving continually alongside their associated skill requirements.
  
  Country and sector-specific findings from the ETF analysis of the Moroccan agri-food sector (ETF, 2021c) suggest that new professions will emerge, typically at the intersection of disciplines. These new jobs can be related to the new niche markets that will emerge. Examples could be an environmental economist or a nutritionist engineer (an expert in both technological processes and consumer preferences and habits).
  
  The research indicates that technical or technology-related occupations are likely to be most impacted by technological change. These could include:
  - engineers and technicians in various technological fields, especially those related to the value chain, maintenance, and energy efficiency (e,g, water plant technicians, biochemical engineers, sensor engineering technicians, bioengineers, water engineers, fluid power engineers and wastewater engineers and technicians);
  - agriculture-related professionals such as agronomists, soil and plant scientists, irrigation specialists and food scientists;
  - business services and related occupations, such as renewable energy consultants and representatives;
  - food managers;
  - different types of production team leaders, such as agronomic crops, horticulture and fruit; horticulture production managers.
  The growth in profiles such as environmental economists, environmental compliance inspectors and environmental engineers is directly linked to drivers of climate change and environmental sustainability found in the research.
  
  ETF analysis also projected into the near future: due to the climatic conditions of the country, the worldwide drive to reduce emissions and the need to increase competitiveness, the following professions are expected to be even more sought after:
  - solar and renewable energy engineers, thermal engineers, energy systems engineers, energy assessors and experts in energy efficiency;
  - water/wastewater engineers, water resource specialists, water plant technicians, fluid power engineers, pump operators, fluid power technicians, water network operatives, irrigation system installers and pipeline pump operators;
  - metrologists and other associated professions[1];
  - research laboratory officers[2].
  Moreover, the need to enhance local products and preserve food identity requires expertise in testing and traceability technologies, but also competences in intellectual property to protect such products. Both of these are new to the sector in Morocco. In the same way, experts in international certification will be required to verify that production meets relevant criteria to classify something as organic.
  
  The information collected also revealed new tasks in traditional occupations. For instance, agronomists will need to possess a broader range of knowledge than in the past. While the set of skills listed by ESCO for that occupation ranges from using pesticides to developing irrigation strategies, the information collected from the interviews with key stakeholders and employers revealed that agronomists will also need to know about precision agriculture techniques, such as monitoring sensors and interpreting data. Similarly, the skills related to the ongoing changes towards diversification, quality improvement, export to new markets and value chain upgrades will reshape profiles in various production, management and sales jobs.
  
  In Armenia, the ETF research on the construction sector (ETF, 2023a) showed that green building growth and more frequent severe natural events linked to climate change are driving the emergence of new job profiles and demand for specific skills. This includes high-skill technical occupations (e.g., civil engineer), medium and low-skill technical occupations (e.g., crane technician) and occupations related to business services (e.g., energy manager). The change is limited to neither highly skilled profiles nor technical professions only, since managers, salesmen and others also need to master new, green technologies. Here too, new jobs appear, especially emerging from innovative cross-sectional sectors. For example, energy engineers, solar energy engineers and energy managers who can refer to the emerging necessity of concepts related to sustainability, energy efficiency and environmental impact within the construction design processes.
  
  In Tunisia, the ETF study on future skills in the energy sector (ETF, 2022b) emphasised that the combined investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency could create thousands of new jobs in the near future. Professionals with vertical competences related to specific sub-sectors will be most needed, such as wind energy engineers, substation engineers, drilling engineers and oil refinery control room operators, alongside those with more transversal competences covering more or all sub-sectors, such as mechanical engineers, energy engineers and manufacturing managers. In general, all energy workers will need a wider set of skills than before to master, for instance, the use of technologies such as solar energy and the management of energy projects.
  
  A summary of the future job demands resulting from technological change in Albania, Egypt and Tunisia can be obtained from technology job rankings. An example of skills for the future in the energy sector in Egypt is provided in Figure 2 below (ETF, 2023b). Although the energy sectors in these three countries produce energy from different sources, the occupational skill needs are remarkably similar.
  
  In general, there is a demand for people to work in technology-related occupations and a range of business-service jobs (ETF 2022a, 2022b, 2023b). The technical jobs cover mechanical, electrical, civil and energy engineers at different levels. At the professional and associate professional level, there is a demand for people like energy engineers, renewable energy engineers, mechanical engineers, etc. In the case of Albania and Egypt, who both depend on hydropower, there is a demand for hydroelectric plant engineers. In Tunisia, there is a demand for fossil fuel engineers, but this is less apparent in Egypt, which is also dependent on energy from fossil fuels, but whose skills demand is oriented towards engineers with wind energy know-how. At the level of skilled traders or assemblers, there is a demand for roles such as control panel assembler, solar energy technician, control panel tester, etc. Among business-oriented occupations, the demand is for managerial roles, sales staff specialised in energy and external consultants linked to renewables (ETF, 2024).
  
  [1] Experts in metrology are by many considered to be a necessary addition for more demanding quality control and enforcement.
  
  [2] Research lab officers are required in the R&D departments of companies to maintain the connection between research and production and to increase innovation in the sector.
  
  Figure 2. Top 25 Energy-related jobs – Technology job ranking, Egypt (ETF, 2023b)
  
  With the help of text mining algorithms, the ETF research went beyond merely listing emerging occupations and looked more specifically at emerging skills needs. This included not only the skills needed for the jobs that are in growing demand but also the skills required across different occupations, such as knowledge of renewable energy technologies or coordination of electricity generation. To clarify, Figure 3 shows the skills demand in selected occupations in the energy sector in Albania.
  
  The research on the automotive sector in Türkiye (ETF, 2021b) highlighted the massive investment in electric vehicles as a consequence of an expected increase in demand for associated occupations such as electrical engineers, advanced vehicle electronic experts, electric maintenance specialists and control engineers. Some new professions, such as energy market analysts and battery algorithm engineers, which are not listed in the existing occupational classification, were mentioned by stakeholders as emerging occupations. This was confirmed by the text mining.
  
  Figure 3. Skills demand in selected occupations in the energy sector, Albania (ETF, 2022a)
- 🌍 6.2 Policy reflections: implications for education and training
  
  The green transition requires a workforce endowed with the necessary skills. It remains uncertain whether the necessary infrastructure can be built everywhere to ensure a sufficient supply of people who can effectively harness emerging technologies effectively and occupy new vacancies in the market. Consequently, the global shift towards sustainability is not only transforming industries and economies but also requires profound changes in education and training systems worldwide. The implications are extensive and complex, spanning the development of robust skills anticipation mechanisms, continuous updating of qualifications and learning outcomes, engaging the private sector, enhancing teacher training, establishing carbon-neutral and resilient infrastructures, and improving career guidance services for learners of all ages. It also calls for the modernisation of learning practices, reorganisation of educational provision, ensuring validation mechanisms for lifelong skills development, and fostering partnerships among various stakeholders.
  
  In this context, formal education and training systems are pivotal. They ensure that, from early childhood and across all types of education, all learners are adequately equipped for life and jobs in a green economy’s labour market. Crucially, relevant education, training and skills are vital to address the distributive effects of the green transition: to ensure that ambitious climate goals do not exacerbate labour market vulnerabilities, but rather promote employment growth through digital technologies and productivity improvements. A focus on education, training, social protection, and access to essential services for those most affected by the green transition is key to enhancing inter-sectoral mobility, specifically for the most vulnerable groups. Ultimately, transitioning towards a green economy requires a comprehensive skilling revolution that includes all workers across qualifications, seniority levels, sectors and occupations (Cedefop, 2023a).
  
  While ETF studies did not directly map the supply side of the different sectors and countries, they did delve into it through profound engagement with stakeholders and companies. These discussions revealed several critical insights, highlighting the essence of having agile and responsive. Input from stakeholders and companies has been instrumental in identifying gaps and opportunities within existing education and training frameworks, paving the way for more targeted and effective skills development initiatives tailored for a future workforce.
  
  Curriculum development
  
  To meet the demand, education systems must adapt their curricula to incorporate sustainability principles and green technologies. This entails integrating topics like renewable energy technologies, sustainable agriculture practices and green construction methods into existing subjects. New specialised programmes and courses must also be developed to prepare students for careers in emerging green sectors. This curriculum shift requires educators to have a profound understanding of sustainability issues and the ability to effectively impart these complex concepts to students.
  
  Examples of curriculum adaptations and modernisations in line with the green transition are evident worldwide. In Tunisia, for example, a blend of traditional and 'green' education programmes is necessary to equip potential entrants into the energy market with relevant skills. Stakeholders and companies have confirmed that training is essential both for creating green jobs and for greening existing jobs. The government's plan to link its 1,000 vocational training centres to new green projects illustrates a proactive approach to restructuring the system and seizing opportunities presented by renewable energies and related sectors such as waste management, recycling, and engineering, not only within the country but also in neighbouring nations like Algeria (ETF, 2022b).
  
  Skills anticipation
  
  To minimise the economic and social costs of the green transition, it is critical to anticipate potential, unintended effects on labour markets and devise adequate policy responses. Identifying emerging skill needs across sectors and occupations is crucial (OECD, 2023c). It provides valuable insights to education and training systems. In the EU, the 2022 Council Recommendation on ensuring a fair transition towards climate neutrality includes specific policy guidance on this aspect, requiring countries to develop up-to-date labour market and skills intelligence and foresight, identifying and forecasting occupation-specific and transversal skills needs. This can also inspire non-EU countries facing urgent needs to identify emerging skill demands.
  
  Innovative pedagogical strategies
  
  To effectively teach sustainability and green technologies, educational institutions must adopt innovative pedagogical strategies that emphasise experiential learning, interdisciplinary approaches and collaboration. Project-based learning, for example, can provide students with hands-on experience in solving real-world environmental problems, thereby enhancing their understanding and application of green skills. Collaboration between educational institutions and industries is also crucial for developing relevant training programmes that align with the needs of the green economy.
  
  Greening VET
  
  A healthy vocational education and training system greatly affects the availability of green skills, ensuring young people and adults acquire the technical and occupational skills as well as the transversal competences needed to live and work in more resource-efficient and less polluting societies. This is particularly true in a context of growing demand for post-secondary VET. The direct implication is that new training programmes and qualifications need to be introduced for emerging green jobs, but also that existing training programmes for traditional qualifications need to be reviewed, integrating green skills in their learning outcomes. Occupational standards for existing qualifications also need updating to make sure that, for instance, plumbers learn about heat pumps and car mechanics learn about electric engines, alongside other more traditional techniques.
  
  Upskilling and reskilling
  
  However, focusing solely on the optimisation of initial education would not suffice to support the green transition. This transition also implies a significant workforce shift, with many individuals needing to re-skill or up-skill to remain relevant in their fields. Adult education and continuous learning programmes play a critical role in this context, offering opportunities for workers to acquire the necessary green skills. This includes short-term training courses (aligned with the recently adopted European approach to micro-credentials for lifelong learning and employability), modular curricula, certification programmes and online learning platforms that provide flexible learning options for the existing workforce. Upskilling and reskilling are crucial to ensure adaptability and movement between sectors and occupations, and to allow reconversion and personal growth and development. In particular, ensuring accessibility to upskilling and reskilling opportunities for all diverse groups will allow people to seize emerging opportunities offered by new jobs or to continue to perform their old jobs in new ways.
  
  Upskilling and reskilling can be developed through a combination of in-company training and more traditional education programmes. Industrial associations could play an important role in providing training opportunities and certification programmes, helping workers to adapt to changes and new skills requirements. The most vulnerable and those with lower levels of skills must not be left behind in this. Combining different approaches to upskilling, business support, economic redevelopment, guidance, information and job search support is key to successfully equipping workers with the newly required skills (European Commission, 2023a).
  
  Inspirational practices exist in EU Member States, where different countries (e.g., Austria, the Netherlands, Croatia, Cyprus, Germany and Italy) provide financial support to train workers, develop new training programmes, map skills requirements and incentivise employers. Other initiatives, for example in Poland, target the most vulnerable and affected groups, as well as workers in sectors or regions particularly affected by the green transition.
  
  Work-based learning
  
  Research across various countries and industries highlights an ongoing trend of skill shortages. Some of these are due to a lack of practical experience and industry-specific expertise among recent graduates. Many have a solid theoretical foundation, but struggle to apply their knowledge in practical settings, prompting employers to seek additional training solutions to bridge these gaps. This mismatch between academic preparation and the real needs of the workforce underscores the urgent need for educational institutions to refresh their curricula and adopt more hands-on teaching approaches. Complementing theoretical instruction and practical experience tailored to specific industries can mitigate this issue. There is a growing preference for work-based learning models, such as apprenticeships and internships, which ensure that new entrants to the job market possess the skills employers need and can quickly become effective in their roles. It is particularly important to equip graduates with the practical skills and innovative approaches needed to navigate and drive the green transition.
  
  Career guidance
  
  Lifelong career guidance, together with broader support from public employment services, will need to be embedded in education policies to assist citizens in navigating the labour market transformation by providing updated career information, e.g., on sectors with growing employment opportunities and corresponding training paths. Continuous training through different forms of learning, both non-formal and informal, will be key to ensuring employees and job seekers can access the support they need to change jobs or even industries.
👨‍💻 7. Conclusions

The ETF work on the future of skills started from the assumption that new skills needs would primarily emerge in developing and transition countries due to the introduction, appropriation and incorporation of new technologies across a range of sectors and countries. However, it was found that other drivers of change also significantly affect the development of skills needs, most notably the greening of the economies.

The research indicates that, across countries and despite varying definitions and methodological frameworks concerning 'green jobs' and 'skills for the green transition', many new jobs will be created. Many existing roles will evolve at the task level, resulting in most jobs becoming greener. This reflects the current situation where companies already report skills shortages across various sectors.

The imperative to capitalise on the employment prospects generated by the green transition is underscored by the urgent need to tackle labour and skills shortages. ETF studies highlight that, while there are sector-specific nuances, there are also commonalities related to greening efforts, such as reducing energy consumption and waste production. In both cases, the skills required pertain to installation, use, and maintenance, in demand across sectors such as agriculture, automotive, construction and energy sectors.

Country-specific skills needs also emerge, reflecting the unique characteristics of each sector in a given country. For instance, in the energy sector, countries for whom hydropower is relevant have invested more heavily in it, while others have focused on fossil fuels or solar power. This is primarily influenced by a country's geology and strategic decisions made by governments. Exposure to extreme natural events, such as floods and earthquakes, can also influence specific skills needs, for example in construction.

There is, however, a significant degree of commonality in skills needs arising from efforts to reduce energy consumption, seek alternative sustainable forms of energy and fully utilise the digitalisation of production processes across various sectors (ETF, 2024).

ETF studies also demonstrated that the green transition demands a comprehensive rethinking of education and training systems. By embedding sustainability into curricula, evolving skill sets to meet new market demands and adopting innovative pedagogical strategies, educational institutions can play a pivotal role in preparing future generations for the challenges and opportunities of a sustainable world. Adapting education and training systems to meet the demands of the green transition poses several challenges, including the need for substantial investment, the development of new teaching materials and methods, and the training of educators in sustainability issues. However, this transition also offers significant opportunities for innovation in education, the creation of new jobs and the promotion of a more sustainable and equitable global economy. This transition not only equips students with the knowledge and skills necessary for green jobs but also fosters a culture of sustainability that is critical for the long-term health of our planet.