Green horizons: Skills for climate action 

Roman Boitard, ETF 
 

This article argues that climate action is an imperative rather than an option and education and labour reforms are cornerstones in the ecological metamorphosis because it needs a workforce skilled in green technologies and sustainability practices. The article describes the grave challenges of the green transition and shows that many of these are even graver in countries neighbouring the EU, but it also offers plenty of hope for these countries if they can mount a strong response. After all, they have some powerful resources, such as young populations and green energy potential.

• ✅ 1. Introduction

  Governments around the world are taking action to tackle climate change while decarbonising their economies. Their success depends on how boldly they can shift to a green decarbonised economy through environmental regulations and adequately trained labour forces.

  The European Union's neighbouring regions, encompassing Eastern Europe, the Balkans, Türkiye, Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, face significant and escalating vulnerability to climate change. Despite contributing minimally to past greenhouse gas emissions, these regions are increasingly grappling with the adverse effects of climate change, such as droughts in North Africa and heatwaves and floods in Europe and Asia (IPCC 2022).

  Recent developments, such as the European Green Deal industrial policy, are reshaping the trade dynamics between the EU and its neighbours while the current energy crisis accelerates the transition to renewable sources and prompts the phasing out of fossil fuels (Kuzemko et al 2022).

  But system changes are no longer a mere introduction of new technologies. They require a radical review of the entire framework through which societies operate and interact with the environment (Markard et al 2012). In this massive transformation process, education and training policies are central.

  This paper, based in part on ETF research, explores how education, skills development and labour markets in the neighbourhood region are affected by the green transition and provides insights into the necessary system changes. 

• ☀️2. Climate change in the EU neighbourhood
  •  🌍2.1 The EU and its neighbourhood 

    For centuries, the nations that now make up the European Union (EU) have traded and exchanged with neighbouring countries in North Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe. They have a long-standing tradition of economic and cultural interconnectivity. Launched in 2004, the EU’s Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) nurtures these ties. It aimed to prevent new borders being drawn up in Europe following EU expansion with ten new members. Today, it promotes stability, security, cooperation and prosperity in the regions adjacent to the EU. The policy is continually adapted to respond to the evolving geopolitical landscape and the specific needs of EU partner countries. Geopolitical events, such as the Arab Spring, the Ukraine invasion and turmoil around Israel continually reshape these relationships. Most recently, the inclusion of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia as candidate countries for accession marked another historical milestone.

    All these events have led the EU to adapt its approach through differentiated partnerships, increasingly focusing on issues like democratic governance, economic integration, mobility and security. This has given the neighbouring countries greater access to the EU market (currently, over 80% of their exports go to the EU, while the EU also accounts for up to 62% of their imports (Weiss, 2023). The EU has strengthened support to regulatory frameworks and has supported various sectors, including energy, environment and sustainable development.

    With its €15.4 billion budget, the European Neighbourhood Instrument (ENI) was the EU’s premier financing instrument for bilateral cooperation until 2020. In 2021, this instrument merged into Global Europe, which expands funding and support and increasingly targets the green transition, not least because the European Green Deal (EGD) affects how neighbouring countries trade with the EU.

  • 🌡️2.2 Exposure to climate change in the EU neighbourhood

    Among climate scientists, there is now broad consensus that multiple climate tipping points could be breached if global average temperatures consistently increase by more than 1.5°C, risking self-perpetuating climate change (McKay et al, 2022). September 2023 had an average surface temperature about 1.75°C warmer than 1900. Extreme events in 2023 had a significant impact on human health, ecosystems and infrastructure throughout the world (WMO, 2023). Heatwaves were particularly severe in southern Europe and North Africa which, in turn, contributed to extensive wildfires, notably in southern Europe. Storm Daniel battered the Mediterranean in September and caused havoc in Libya. In Derna city, two dams collapsed with catastrophic human consequences – a telling example of how climate change hits extra hard under poor governance.

    The regions, countries and biomes of the EU neighbourhood are very diverse and so is their vulnerability to climate change. Countries of the Eastern Partnership (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) are primarily challenged by water scarcity, rising temperatures and the subsequent degradation of crucial landscapes such as wetlands. For Southern Neighbourhood countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria and Tunisia), the predominant issues are extreme water scarcity and desertification. Egypt and Tunisia face significant threats from sea level rise. Climate vulnerabilities are also significant in the Western Balkans and in Türkiye. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and North Macedonia and Serbia grapple with floods, droughts and heatwaves. Montenegro and Türkiye battle coastal erosion, increasing temperatures and water stress (Bellis et al, 2022).

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2022) highlights that climate risks are magnified by inequality and poverty. Vulnerable populations, including smallholder farmers, are highly dependent on climate-sensitive ecosystems. Inequalities related to geographic location, wealth, conflict, corruption, education and other socio-cultural factors exacerbate climate vulnerability. That is because poor populations often live in more exposed areas and are more affected by climate hazards. They receive less post-shock support and often lack social protection schemes​​. In sum, climate adaptation and resilience strategies need to be targeted in each of these regions, addressing their specific environmental and socio-economic challenges.

  •  💶2.3 Economic impact of climate change and of the EU response to it

    Unsurprisingly, the economies of many EU neighbourhood countries are profoundly affected by climate change.

    Agricultural productivity suffers from water scarcity or unpredictable rainfall and temperature shifts, critically affecting food security for growing populations, particularly in North Africa. Many of these countries are heavily dependent on the trade of agricultural commodities and climate-induced global price volatility can significantly impact their economies. The region's energy demands keep increasing for reasons that stack. Changes in temperature, particularly in North Africa, place increased cooling demands on a growing urban population. More frequent extreme weather events can cause significant damage to infrastructure, necessitating costly repairs and maintenance. They exacerbate health issues and therefore health expenditure, while also leading to a decline in outdoor labour productivity, mainly due to extreme heat (Hejazi, 2023).

    The EU shift towards renewable energy and energy efficiency as part of the European Green Deal (EGD) is in stark contrast with energy dynamics in its neighbouring regions. Southern neighbours such as Algeria, Egypt and Israel that have rich reserves of natural gas and green hydrogen potential, face a dual scenario. While they can harness clean energy for economic growth, the EU's reduced dependency on fossil fuels challenges their traditional energy exports. Concurrently, the EU's Farm to Fork strategy aims to overhaul food systems for sustainability, encouraging neighbours to adopt organic farming practices for EU market access. Countries such as Tunisia and Morocco are progressing in this direction, though they grapple with aligning to EU standards and potential short-term cost increases. The Carbon Border Adjustment mechanism will soon tax imports with a large carbon footprint. Exporters need to consider this in their plans for future trading with the EU.

    Not only does the Green Deal have profound economic, environmental and social implications for EU's neighbouring countries, it also has significant political consequences. It threatens to disrupt existing power structures and economic systems, particularly in countries with important fossil fuel exports[1]. Additionally, the EU's emphasis on green technology and its reimagining of energy security underline the critical need for a move towards clean energy and improved efficiency. Such a transformation necessitates trade adjustments to reduce carbon-heavy production, investments in green technology and capitalising on private sector investments in developing countries. This is particularly essential because stricter environmental standards could exclude firms in neighbouring countries from European markets.

    This paper assumes there is no contradiction in acknowledging the state of play in environmental degradation while also recognising that significant progress has been made on climate action in the recent past. All these countries have taken concrete measures to tackle climate change. All have ratified both the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, now known as UN Climate Change) and the Paris Agreement. They have also submitted their NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) with ambitious, albeit sometimes superficial, decarbonisation objectives for the next two decades.

    Overall, the EU's response to climate change represents a complex mosaic of opportunities and challenges for its neighbouring countries. The movement towards sustainable energy, agriculture and a circular economy carries the promise of positive change. However, it must be carefully balanced against possible economic disruptions, trade shifts, and political ramifications.

     

    [1] A rentier state is a state which earns a substantial part of its national revenue from rent paid by foreign parties.

• 💚3. What is the green transition

  Every new term evolves and resonates differently depending on its context and ‘the green transition’ is no exception. For the needs of this paper, it is defined as a fundamental shift towards sustainability and environmental stewardship that transcends national borders. It stands for the collective effort to combat climate change, reduce pollution and material use, preserve biodiversity, and promote sustainable development practices, such as the circular economy. Importantly, this transition is intricately linked to the emergence of a green economy – an economy ‘that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. It is low-carbon, resource efficient, and socially inclusive’ (UNEP, 2011).

  It is critical to our definition of the green transition that it is not confined to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. It also entails a broader transformation of the way in which societies operate and interact with the natural world. It takes in sustainable practice from across various sectors, such as agriculture, mobility, manufacturing and urban development, fostering an inclusive approach to ecological and economic well-being.

  Economically, this transition encourages innovation in green technologies and sustainable business models, creating new job opportunities and markets. Socially, it emphasises environmental justice, aiming to distribute the benefits and burdens of environmental policies fairly and to prevent marginalised communities from being disproportionately affected. In essence, the green transition is a comprehensive, multi-faceted approach that recognises the intrinsic link between environmental issues and broader economic and social dimensions.

  From this perspective, the green transition requires rethinking and redesigning the entire framework of how societies operate and interact with the environment (Markard et al, 2012). ETF research found that the green transition is advanced by diverse key drivers, involving a combination of environmental, economic, technological and societal factors (ETF 2023a; ETF 2023c).

  The ETF found that environmental concerns, such as citizen’s demonstrations and activism, incentivise decision-makers to address climate change and environmental degradation. Innovation and technological progress are essential enablers. Policy and regulatory frameworks encourage green practices, such as subsidies for energy efficiency retrofitting. Economic incentives, such as the economic viability of renewable energy sources and the potential for green jobs and growth, significantly motivate governments. Enhanced public awareness of environmental issues and consumer demand for sustainable products and practices influence businesses and governments. Global agreements like the Paris Agreement establish the framework for coordinated international action towards a green transition.

• 🚨4. Threats to the green transition
  • ⏸️4.1 Climate inaction

    The gravest risk to climate change is our slow response and misplaced prioritisation of short-term economic growth over long-term environmental sustainability. Deferring action under the pretext of prioritising economic expansion in a binary exclusive manner is a flawed strategy. It risks a future where the exacerbated effects of climate change may severely disrupt, if not render obsolete, a multitude of job sectors, thereby necessitating immediate and substantial systemic transformations towards sustainable practices.

    Many economic sectors fully rely on a healthy ecosystem to thrive. Agriculture is the prime example, but there are others. As indicated by the ILO ‘an increase in heat stress resulting from global warming is projected to lead to global productivity losses equivalent to 80 million full-time jobs in the year 2030’ (ILO, 2019 p.3). As a result, ‘we can expect to see more inequality between low and high-income countries and worsening working conditions for the most vulnerable.‘

    Inaction is undeniably the costliest path, with climate change already negatively affecting economies and labour markets globally and costing an estimated €100bn a year in Europe by 2050 (COACCH, 2018). The policy implementation gap between existing climate policies and their implementation is broadly illustrated by SDG and NDC setbacks observed for the entire world, including parts of the EU and its neighbourhood (UNFCCC, 2023).

    This holds true across all levels of economic development. While low-income economies often grapple with meeting basic needs for healthcare and education, and middle-income economies aim to further enhance their citizens' quality of life, both tasks must be undertaken with a heightened sensitivity to sustainability principles and the environmental context (CEF, 2024).

  • ⛽4.2 Fossil fuel lock-in

    To meet the ambitious climate mitigation targets set by the Paris Agreement, a rapid and substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (approximately 5% per year) is needed. To achieve this, deeply entrenched networks of infrastructure and behaviours that constitute our current global energy system must be transformed. This system, the most extensive network ever constructed, represents a significant investment over two centuries and is intertwined with a complex array of institutions and consumer preferences. The phenomenon where such existing conditions and investments lead to a resistance against innovation in low-carbon alternatives is sometimes called 'carbon lock-in' (Seto et al, 2016).

    Both developed and emerging economies are affected. In the EU neighbourhood, countries such as Algeria, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Libya significantly depend on fossil fuel exports. These contribute 14.5%, 21%, 14.8% and 56% respectively to their national incomes. Kazakhstan is the world's ninth-largest coal producer and 11th in oil exports. Algeria and Turkmenistan rank 7th and 8th in global natural gas exports, respectively.

    All of this sheds a light on why low-carbon green technology, now the most cost-effective form of energy production globally and a means to fulfil climate commitments and create jobs, does not expand as quickly as expected. This situation is sometimes referred to as the climate policy paradox (Nacke, 2022). To effectively combat carbon lock-in, policies should focus on promoting institutional and behavioural changes that align with decarbonisation objectives. This approach requires an integrated effort across technological, institutional and societal domains to overcome the entrenched inertia of current fossil fuel industries, going well beyond initial stages of education and training.

  • ⚔️4.3 Armed conflict

    Armed conflicts in certain EU-neighbouring countries present a formidable barrier to the pursuit of a green transition. These conflicts often lead to the destruction of critical infrastructure, disrupt governance, diminish investor confidence and divert resources from sustainable initiatives. In post-conflict zones, the immediate need for reconstruction can overshadow sustainable development priorities, further delaying the shift towards environmentally friendly practices. Additionally, these conflicts contribute to environmental degradation, both directly through tactics such as scorched earth and indirectly by creating unstable conditions that weaken environmental policies.

    The Global Peace Index (2023) highlights this challenge by comparing the peacefulness of countries. There is a stark contrast in this index between EU Member States and their neighbouring regions. This instability not only impedes local sustainability efforts but also has broader international implications.

    In Ukraine, for instance, the ongoing armed conflict has inflicted severe environmental damage, adversely affecting water resources and infrastructure. This not only hinders Ukraine's sustainable development goals but also impacts international dynamics. Ukraine's dented role as a major wheat supplier affected the food security of North African countries and influenced political perspectives on energy production, now predominantly viewed through the lens of energy security encompassing both environmental sustainability and national sovereignty.

    In the Middle East, the combination of climate change, environmental degradation and armed conflict exacerbates humanitarian needs, undermining Sustainable Development Goals that are essential for a green economy.

    In conclusion, armed conflicts in the EU neighbourhood complicate the trajectory towards a green economy. They divert essential resources and attention, cause significant environmental degradation and create socio-economic instability, all of which are detrimental to sustainable development efforts, as highlighted by sources like the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC, 2023). In fact, conflicts not only hinder progress towards these goals, they may even cause regression. Addressing these conflicts and their fallout is therefore not only a matter of peace and security but also a crucial step towards global environmental sustainability.

  • 📍4.4 Nationalist interests

    The report Freedom in the world by Freedom House assesses political rights and civil liberties in countries worldwide (Freedom House, 2024). It evaluates aspects like the electoral process, political pluralism, government functioning, and individual rights. The 2024 edition marks all EU neighbourhood countries as either ‘not free’ or only ‘partially free’, highlighting the increase in nationalist policies. Nationalist policies in these countries can create another layer of complexity, as governments often prioritise sovereignty and immediate economic interests. This can result in a reluctance to engage in international environmental agreements or invest in long-term sustainability projects. This inward-looking approach may hinder collaboration and the sharing of green technologies, which is crucial for a comprehensive and effective green transition. Trade frictions over green technology subsidies are increasing among large economies (Kleinmann 2023), potentially sidelining environmental concerns in favour of national interests.

  • 📶4.5 The digital transition

    Amid these challenges, the ongoing digitalisation, marked by advancements in big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence is restructuring the world of work. This transformation intersects with the green transition, as digital technologies contribute to a net reduction in carbon emissions. AI emerges as a promising tool for environmental conservation and sustainability efforts. It has the potential to revolutionise energy efficiency, waste management and environmental monitoring, but also to redefine how education is organised. Its predictive capabilities are instrumental in assessing environmental impact and optimising resource allocation, therefore mitigating the effects of climate change. For neighbouring countries, AI-driven solutions can be a shortcut to traditional environmental management stages, offering more efficient and effective ways to achieve sustainability goals. However, harnessing AI's full potential requires adequate investment, technological infrastructure and skilled human resources, which are not currently available in some of these countries.

  • ⚙️4.6 Governance and coordination mechanisms

    The energy, transportation, agriculture and waste management sectors often receive most attention in the green transition, and rightly so. However, the move towards a green economy affects and encompasses all sectors and policies. Effective governance mechanisms are essential for integrating these varied areas, preventing conflict and avoiding duplication. They establish the necessary framework for managing the complex move to a green economy, supporting labour rights and enabling streamlined coordination, policy coherence, data-driven decision-making and efficient resource distribution. Research on climate adaptation plans in various countries, both low and high income, indicates that the global agenda often overrides local needs, with limited interaction (Fátima Alves et al, 2020). Therefore, having adequate mechanisms is key to achieving environmental sustainability and addressing climate change in a way that is specific to each context and includes all stakeholders.

    Recent ETF (2023a) analysis highlights this lack of coordination as a persistent obstacle that is mentioned by stakeholders across the EU neighbourhood. It is particularly pronounced in relatively young nations that have less stable, disorganised and often opaque institutional structures. This lacking or fragmented coordination among governmental bodies notably hampers the integration of green transition skills into the education system, as no entity assumes effective leadership responsibility for this critical task. Consequently, there has been minimal collaboration among diverse actors, resulting in difficulties in standardising education and training approaches.

    Strictly in terms of government efficiency and regulatory capacity, most neighbourhood countries lag OECD and EU averages. The government effectiveness indicator assesses ‘the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government’s commitment to such policies’ (Kaufmann et al., 2010). Scores on this composite index, derived from 48 indicators across 16 sources, typically range between -2.5 and 2.5, with higher values indicating better governance. Except for Israel, however, all neighbourhood countries scored below 1 in 2021, suggesting poor institutional capacity to promptly respond to shocks and societal changes due to inadequate coordination and a suboptimal public administration culture (Demirgüç-Kunt and Torre, 2022).

    However, in several of the EU’s neighbouring countries, particularly those in Central Asia, eastern Europe and the western Balkans, government strategies and incentives play a pivotal role in advancing the green transition. In Kyrgyzstan, for example, key changes in tax regulations that support the green economy are instrumental in propelling the green transition. In countries such as Albania and Moldova, government policies and actions revolve around the EU approximation process, which serves as a key driver and incentive for introducing regulations that support the green transition.

    ETF partner countries also offer many examples of cooperation between different institutions. One such example is the Inter-Ministerial Working Group on Climate Change in Albania, which serves as a coordinating body for all institutions involved in climate-change-related activities. Another is the National Council for Sustainable Development in Kyrgyzstan, which is responsible for coordinating and evaluating national development strategies and priorities. However, even in these countries, broader coordination among different stakeholders, such as private sector representatives and trade unions remains a challenge. In the next sections we will look at how countries can navigate the green transition more successfully.

• ⏫5. Advancing the green transition
  • ♻️5.1 Structural labour market adjustments and the rise of green jobs

    Global and regional labour markets are evolving as a consequence of international commitments to carbon emission cuts, environmental regulations and the private sector's shift towards greener operations. Moving to greener economies and more equitable societies requires substantial workforce volume reallocations and occupational adaptations as sectors take turns to decarbonise their operations and shift into circular economy models. While the net impact on job creation and employment depends on each country’s main economic activities and selected policy mix, there is ample evidence that many occupations are becoming ‘greener’ and that sectoral reallocation of employment is increasingly taking place throughout the world, leading to a significant net increase in employment opportunities (Gass et al, 2021).

    An increasing body of literature also demonstrates that green technology deployment can help tackle unemployment by generating new job opportunities. The International Energy Agency (IEA, 2023) acknowledges that deploying renewable energy usually has a positive impact on job creation. However, it also points out that this impact varies by country and region.

    It is worth noting that, both in the EU and globally, this concerns all skills levels, not just engineers (He at al, 2023) (ETF, 2024). Examples of low-skilled green occupations include process, plant and machine operatives, mid-skilled occupations include energy auditors and high-skilled occupations include production and financial managers (PwC, 2023). Often, the skills required are not just green but also digital because most technology relies on digital tools to operate (CEDFEOP, 2023).

    There is, however, a strong local dimension to the green transition. Risks and challenges, as well as opportunities and job creation, are unevenly distributed across regions. Some areas will benefit more than others from the shift towards carbon-neutral and environmentally friendly jobs and sectors. Moreover, there are other challenges, such as the need to reskill workers from declining fossil-fuel-intensive industries and the need to include marginalised groups, such as people who are not in employment, education or training (NEETs), but not only (OECD, 2023).

    The transition thus raises concerns about fairness and even the possibility of increasing inequalities. Challenges include limited access to social protection, education, training programmes and necessary technologies for participating in the green economy. In turn, these are exacerbated by increased digitalisation, high migration rates and gender discrimination (Valero et al, 2021). Additionally, in the EU neighbourhood, many tertiary graduates are either overqualified for their jobs or work in fields unrelated to their studies, leading to a mismatch between education and job requirements and consequent economic disadvantages (ETF, 2024).

    Although to varying degrees, in every country employment programmes and sectoral policies are being implemented to ensure a just transition, where workers are supported through the changes with training and new job opportunities in all evolving sectors. The European Green Deal, for instance, emphasises the creation of high-wage, sustainable jobs and highlights the importance of job security during this transition​​. A similar approach can be seen in many neighbourhood countries. Tunisia, for example, has established programmes to support women and youth in gaining skills and employment in the green economy.

  • 🧠5.2 Skills and education needs for the green transition

    It should come as no surprise that education plays a crucial role in the green transition. It equips current and future generations with the knowledge and skills necessary to innovate and sustain green technologies and practice. The emergence of new green jobs and the greening of existing occupations highlight the need for updated skills and, as such, for updated education and training for sustainability. Adaptation of training modalities is also crucial for addressing the changing demands of the labour market. Sustainability principles must be embedded in all levels and types of education. Research in eco-friendly technologies must be promoted. Modern education institutions now prioritise sustainability, teaching about climate change, renewable energies, regenerative agriculture and environmental protection. Just as an example, Morocco has incorporated renewable energy studies in higher education institutions, especially since the launch of the Ouarzazate Solar Power Station project.

    In addition to technological development, the green transition requires changes in social values, norms and behaviours. There is a need for a cultural shift towards more sustainable and sober consumption patterns. As sustainability becomes more culturally valued and socially accepted, individuals are more likely to adopt eco-friendly habits. This can be promoted through peer influence, community initiatives and the portrayal of sustainable lifestyles in media. Although this is a new field of research, there is growing evidence showing that Millennials and Gen Z[1] are more inclined to buy food and products that are more sustainable (Chiciudean et al, 2024) and also more prone to voting for electoral programmes that include radical measures on climate action (Pew Research Center, 2021). This is an important observation in view of the demographic composition of countries in the EU neighbourhood. North Africa and the Middle East have particularly young populations.

    The goal of education and training is to develop a workforce that is environmentally conscious and proactive, and that possesses the necessary skills for green initiatives. Again, this extends beyond just technical expertise in green technology. It also covers critical non-technical skills like problem-solving, analytical thinking, environmental awareness, effective communication, teamwork and the transformative skills needed for systemic change and advocacy. Moreover, a critical characteristic of a scientifically educated individual is environmental awareness. This includes a commitment to evidence-based explanations of the natural world, valuing scientific approaches to inquiry and recognising the inherent uncertainty in scientific inquiry. Environmental awareness should go hand in hand with the adoption of sustainability values and the development of sustainability attitudes in one’s life so that everyone contributes to sustainability in daily life from more efficient use of natural resources to energy-saving practices and recycling. The European Commission Green Competence Framework is a useful tool to unpack these dimensions.

     

    [1] Individuals born roughly between 1980 and 2010.

• 💪6. Challenges to education and training

  The education and training systems in the countries of the EU neighbourhood differ considerably, reflecting diverse historical, economic and social contexts. However, collectively, these countries have shown a solid commitment to improvement. This is illustrated quite well by the ETF review of education and training developments (ETF, 2023b) and by Torino Process assessments over the years. Yet, most countries face three main challenges that affect the speed at which they integrate green skills and sustainability into their learning outcomes.

  • 📝6.1 Access

    First, access to quality education is a significant issue. Sustainable Development Goal 4 (quality education) is being tracked internationally. Of all EU neighbourhood countries, only Moldova and Georgia have achieved this goal. The others are still working towards it. While primary education enrolment rates are generally high, disparities emerge in secondary and higher education, particularly in rural areas and among marginalised communities where we often see a green skills gap among learners (Kountouris, 2023).

    

     

    There is a growing recognition of the importance of vocational education and training for fostering employability and entrepreneurship. However, vocational training systems often suffer from social stigma, lack of funding, and poor industry linkages. This makes them less effective.

    Gender disparities, although narrowing, persist in some regions, particularly in STEM fields (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) and ICT (information and communication technology) (ETF, 2023a). As a result, girls and women find it difficult to access green jobs and this is partially due to a lack of adequate training or career choices based on traditional gender roles.

    

  • 📌6.2 Relevance

    Apart from a few precious centres of excellence, most education providers still struggle to achieve even the basics of education quality: retaining learners, retraining teachers, finding resources for heating the premises in winter or cooling them in summer, investing in greener infrastructures and so on. It is obviously difficult to teach about sustainability when basic educational needs are not fulfilled.

    Education and training institutions can support a holistic curriculum for skills development and training through a participatory method that involves all pertinent stakeholders. They can also promote continuous and lifelong learning to enable workers to keep up with new innovations and technologies.

    Education systems, from preschool to higher education, need to revisit and clarify their purpose, mission and goals. This is especially true in the context of educating for a sustainable future, where employment will almost always require strong performance in STEM and ICT as well as knowledge of sustainability. However, the concept of a sustainable society is contested and only partially defined, leading to different interpretations and implementations of education for sustainable development worldwide, often based on specific contexts (Kioupi et al, 2019) which, in turn, leads to sustainability learning outcomes that often lack clarity.

    As a result, the relevance of education, measured in terms of learning outcomes and alignment with labour market needs, is also a concern. Many countries struggle with outdated curricula and teaching methods and there is a notable mismatch between the skills developed in educational institutions and those sought by employers. This is particularly the case in the low- and middle-income economies of the EU neighbourhood, (Giunipero, 2022). Using national data, the ETF (2023b) and other international institutions (Levin et al, 2023) find education and training systems that are not adequately aligned with the needs of the labour market.

    In recent years, there has been an increase in EU cooperation to enhance educational standards and align them with European frameworks. Initiatives such as the Eastern Partnership, the European Neighbourhood Policy, the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans and others have facilitated policy dialogue, investment and exchange programmes.

    Furthermore, the ETF observes a growing emphasis on sustainability and environmental sciences in educational curricula. This includes the integration of concepts such as circular economy, renewable energy technologies and sustainable development into university programmes, vocational training, and even primary and secondary education (ETF, 2023b).

  • 🪙6.3 Investment

    The third and most persistent challenge is that investment in education and training systems remains critically inadequate. The pursuit of climate neutrality requires substantial resources, not least for the alignment of education and training. Limited financial resources, insufficient infrastructure, stretched and isolated administrations, and a lack of continuously trained educators severely impede the capacity of education and training systems to meet current demands.

    Investment in education and training for the green transition remains insufficient in several countries, including Albania, Armenia, Egypt, Kosovo, Moldova, Lebanon, and Tajikistan. These nations heavily depend on non-governmental funding sources, with international organisations playing a key role in driving changes in both industry and education sectors. The situation in some of these countries is further exacerbated by political instability, uncoordinated fiscal and industrial policies, emerging social dialogue and worker’s rights and conflicts. Together, these factors contribute to an unrealised potential in human capital development.

    Despite the complexity of assessing the performance of education systems, the recent Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) report by Sachs et al (2023) provides insights into country trends concerning SDGs 4 and 8, which cover quality education and decent employment. The report shows that all countries in the EU neighbourhood face either 'significant' or 'major' challenges in achieving these goals by 2030.

    

     

    The energy sector has seen significant investment in renewable resources and staff training, but these initiatives should be extended to all sectors of the economy because sustainability affects everything. The ETF policy brief Skilling for the green transition (ETF, 2023a) reveals that, in many countries, education budgets fall short of policy ambitions and commitments. The budgets are mainly earmarked for salaries, with infrequent additional funding from public or international sources for infrastructure adaptation, innovative curriculum development or enhanced service delivery. In response, some countries have adopted a more diversified funding approach. They engage the private sector in supporting skills development through public-private partnerships, sectoral bodies for skills analysis, work-based learning and household contributions for education costs.

• 🚦7. The road ahead

  The energy crisis that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 has accelerated the transition to renewable energy production, significantly influencing the energy landscape of various regions. New markets are appearing and fossil fuels are phased out at an accelerated pace. The shift to renewable energy sources like solar, wind and green hydrogen matches global initiatives to mitigate climate change. Economically, this transition reduces European reliance on imported fossil fuels, which are susceptible to price fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties. The shift presents both challenges and opportunities for the countries neighbouring the EU. Those rich in renewable resources can find new economic growth avenues in clean energy, those rich in fossil fuel depots may face challenges due to reduced EU demand​​.

  The North African potential for renewable energy is enormous, particularly in solar and wind power. The largest solar park outside of China and India today is Benban Solar Park in Egypt. Its annual production is approximately 3.8 TWh and it was mostly funded through European loans.

  This potential not only presents a crucial interim solution to Europe's quest to diversify its energy sources and decrease its reliance on fossil fuels, it also holds promise for long-term energy strategies. North Africa is poised to become a key player in green hydrogen production, which is critical for sectors where decarbonisation is challenging, such as aerospace. The region also has abundant reserves of raw materials that are critical to energy storage and battery technology, offering the EU an avenue to broaden its supply chains for clean energy technologies. The region's young and educated workforce is an asset, not just for potential technology manufacturing closer than Asian markets, but also for collaborative research and development (El-Katiri, L. 2023).

  The renewable energy sector in Türkiye is also growing fast, particularly in wind power. The country’s renewable energy capacity has doubled in five years and in 2022, over 40% of the energy it produced came from renewable sources (IEA, 2024). This rapid growth has been driven by robust policy support and financing. Türkiye's upward potential for wind energy is still big, indicating that it could become a regional leader in this field.​

  Low-carbon energy production also offers significant opportunities for nations in the Western Balkans and the Eastern Partnership, regions that suffer from air pollution linked to energy production.

  Promoting renewable energy infrastructure, research and development can generate new job opportunities, especially in sectors such as manufacturing, installation, maintenance and technological innovation. Hence, investment is a critical economic and environmental obligation with strategic opportunities for countries both within and outside the EU.

  For instance, Georgia benefits from the EU4Energy programme which supports education and capacity building in the fields of energy efficiency and renewable energy. As another example, Albania already produces 40% of its energy from renewable sources. And Israel has over a quarter of female employees in the energy sector.

  Beyond the world of energy, the agriculture sector faces similar challenges and opportunities under the EU's Farm to Fork strategy, part of the European Green Deal, which aims to make food systems more sustainable. By adopting organic farming, neighbouring countries can secure or improve their access to EU markets. Tunisia and Morocco are examples of countries moving in this direction. However, compliance with EU standards and initial price increases pose challenges, potentially affecting their participation in European supply chains and access to finance. This underlines the need for EU support during their transition.

  In summary, the green transition offers both challenges and opportunities for the EU's neighbours. Progress towards renewable energy use, sustainable agriculture and a circular economy promise beneficial outcomes but must be carefully navigated to mitigate economic disruption, trade dynamics and political considerations.

  • 👐7.1  An inclusive green transition

    Importantly, the green transition should not be viewed in isolation but rather in the context of its broader socio-economic impact, including potential benefits for GDP, job creation and human welfare. It is particularly important for low and middle-income countries to manage the transition in a way that tackles inequality and strengthens domestic supply chains (IRENA, 2023).

    In the EU, significant progress has been made towards Sustainable Development Goal 8 (SDG 8), which covers economic growth and decent employment. In the past five years, the EU economy has expanded, its material footprint has been reduced, unemployment has decreased, work safety has improved and the risk of in-work poverty[1] has lessened. These positive trends indicate that EU countries are largely on track to meet their SDG 8 targets by 2030 (Eurostat, 2023).

    However, this progress is not mirrored in the EU’s neighbouring regions, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, which have the highest youth unemployment rates globally and a significant portion of their workforce employed in the informal sector. Although countries in the region have improved their NEET rates, these too remain considerably higher than the EU average (ETF, 2023).

    Despite a more equitable gender representation in the renewable energy sector, the underrepresentation of women in the broader labour market is a major concern. All the while, gender-sensitive policies and training opportunities remain inadequate in many countries, negatively affecting equal participation (Eurostat, 2021a; IRENA, 2022). But there is progress which can be used to inspire others.

    For example, the ElectroMisr School in Egypt is a collaborative VET effort between Schneider Electric and the European Institute for Cooperation and Development (EICD). The EICD promotes gender equality with an equal mix of male and female students, fostering a harmonious environment by reinforcing gender equality values within their programmes. Beyond education, it actively assesses workplaces in the energy sector, addressing issues like the lack of women's facilities. This approach helps to create an inclusive environment for women pursuing careers in the energy sector, encompassing education, workplace infrastructure and women's empowerment.

    Compared to native workers, migrant workers also face increasing barriers to accessing education and training opportunities. This often drives them towards informal labour markets. Supporting the move from informal to formal labour is crucial, particularly in agriculture, which is characterised by high levels of informality in all neighbourhood countries. Promoting enterprise formalisation and expanding labour laws and social protection in the circular economy are essential.

    Rural communities may experience limited involvement in the green transition because they have restricted access to education and training, insufficient infrastructure and inadequate investments. This is the case in, for example, Georgia, Moldova, Egypt, Jordan, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

    People with disabilities are often excluded from employment in green-economy jobs because they have limited access to education and (re)training programmes and indeed the labour market as a whole. Examples of countries where this is the case include Israel, Lebanon, Moldova, Palestine and Serbia.

    Regions were mining traditionally was the strongest industry have their own specific needs. Studies emphasise the role of individual and community resilience in economic transition. They also highlight the importance of professional qualification opportunities and support systems for the successful transition of post-industrial regions, such as the Jiu Valley and Ștei in Romania or La Louvière in Belgium. Various interventions from EU Member States, including financial aid for training, new training programme development, skills mapping and incentives for employers, illustrate the range of strategies employed to support this transition.

     

    [1] ‘In-work poverty’ refers to poverty among people in employment. People who suffer from in-work poverty are also referred to as the ‘working poor’.

  •  🟩7.2 The role of EU accession in the green transition

    The EU accession process significantly influences sustainability and green transition efforts in countries negotiating for EU membership (currently 10 economies in the neighbourhood). This influence is particularly exerted through compliance with Chapter 27 – Environment and climate change – of the acquis and the 2021 EU Climate Law. Chapter 27 focuses on environmental protection and is grounded in principles such as preventive action, the polluter pays, combating environmental damage at its source and shared responsibility. Candidate countries must adopt and enforce over 200 legal acts covering various environmental areas, including water and air quality, waste management, nature protection, industrial pollution control, chemicals and genetically modified organisms. They also require the integration of environmental issues into other sectoral policies, such as energy and transport. Full compliance requires not only a skilled workforce but also substantial investment and strong local and national administrative frameworks. Additionally, the EU's increasing investments in these countries, especially in environmental sectors, ensure that the accession process aligns with the EU’s environmental goals and promotes a broad green transition in these countries.

    For example, one significant EU-supported legislative development in Serbia was the adoption of the Law on use of renewable energy sources in 2021, which aims at boosting investment in renewables by increasing their share in the total energy mix. The law also introduced a ban on the construction of hydropower plants in protected areas and sets up two incentive systems to encourage further investment.

• 💡8. Conclusions

  At this critical juncture, with our planet experiencing significant environmental and socio-economic changes, the importance of the green transition in the EU neighbourhood cannot be overstated. This paper has explored the complex challenges and opportunities ahead, firmly establishing that climate action is an exigent imperative rather than a mere option. Education and labour reforms are cornerstones in this ecological metamorphosis because it needs a workforce skilled in green technologies and sustainability practices.

  Our analysis shows that, despite geographic and socio-economic disparities, the transition to a green economy is creating new markets and driving innovation. With renewable energy sources rapidly replacing fossil fuels, countries rich in solar and wind resources stand to redefine their economic landscapes. However, this seismic shift also brings the potential for economic upheaval, necessitating strategic planning and collaborative efforts to ensure an equitable transition.

  The success of these policies hinges on the integration of education and skills development with labour market needs, creating a workforce that is resilient to the evolving dynamics of a decarbonised economy.

  Moving forward, the paper suggests that merging technical skills with a societal shift towards sustainable living is essential. Given the right education and opportunities, the growing number of young people in the region can lead the way to an economy that genuinely and simultaneously addresses the needs of the environment and the people to achieve lasting peace.

  The call to action is clear: harness the transformative potential of education and work for a future that is not only green and resilient but also rich with opportunities for everyone.

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