This European Training Foundation (ETF) assessment provides an external, forward-looking analysis of the country's human capital development issues and VET policy responses from a lifelong learning perspective. It is based on evidence contained in Turkey's National Torino Process Report, which was compiled in 2019 using a standardised questionnaire (the National Reporting Framework – NRF) and additional information sources, including international analyses.

The report comes at the right time, as the Turkish Government has recently set ambitious goals to move from a middle-income to a high-income country and to enter the top-10 global economies. Policymakers are well aware that this can be only achieved if education and employment policies are able to transform and improve the country's human capital. The Education Vision 2023 aims to contribute to these goals and has set new priorities in all areas of education, including vocational education and training (VET).

However, despite the advanced level that Turkey's economy has already reached and the significant reforms that have taken place in education and training – with others still ongoing – substantial challenges in human capital development and use remain.

Turkey has made substantial progress in human capital formation, especially in improving access to various levels of education, as acknowledged by EU benchmarks or OECD policy reports. However, as far as most education and training indicators are concerned, wide gaps remain between Turkey and comparable countries in the EU and OECD.

As a large country in an age of digitalisation, Turkey is facing manifold human capital development challenges. In economic terms, the most pressing of these relate to making the transformation from low to advanced technology and from a middle- to a high-income country; boosting productivity and tackling the impact of automation; and mitigating the effects of the urban-rural divide in an increasingly urbanised society in order to provide career opportunities for a young population, as well as reskilling and upskilling the adult workforce, including a huge number of refugees.

The ETF assessment found that the economic transformation already happening, allied to the current ambitious policy goals, call for enhanced adult learning opportunities – in particular with regard to those people working in sectors at high risk of automation as well as for the low-skilled and groups vulnerable to social exclusion. While initial education and training will remain important as a foundation for all, the relative importance of adult learning is expected to increase as reskilling and upskilling for new jobs becomes more crucial for employability. However, adults in Turkey seem to be less prepared for the future than their peers in other countries.

While another source of increased demand for adult learning may come from the relatively low educational attainment of the population, there is strong evidence that the level of participation in learning and training provision in Turkey remains comparatively weak.

In recent years two other interlinked phenomena can be observed which are exerting a negative impact on human capital development and use in Turkey. The first is the shrinking pool of skills supply for the economy, as evidenced by the decreasing VET participation rate, including apprenticeships. The second is the persistence of skills mismatches (both vertical and horizontal) that undermine the potential of human capital in the country. Paradoxically, VET is also affected by skills mismatch, indicating the need for more effective VET provision and career guidance.

Stagnating and comparatively limited opportunities for adult learning combined with decreasing VET participation and high level of skills mismatch are serious concerns for human capital development and constrain growth and employability in the country.

The ETF suggests that these areas should become an immediate policy priority. In particular, the working-age population in Turkey needs to be empowered to cope with the economic transformation that is already happening and is likely to accelerate in the near future.