2. HUMAN CAPITAL: DEVELOPMENT AND CHALLENGES

In conclusion, there is an issue of reflecting, in educational planning for the short to mid term, the sharply declining numbers of students enrolling in primary and secondary education. With a maximum of 20 pupils per class[3] The only exception is Prishtina with an average of 24 pupils per class.
, class sizes are already small (MEST, 2018, p. 85). MEST collects education statistics, including for each municipality, which helps to get a picture of the regional distribution of declining enrolments in general and secondary education. While student numbers have declined over the past ten years, the number of teachers has risen. Communities, including a few which have more teachers than students, do not want to give up on schools as the provider of public jobs, although transport of children to bigger schools in the vicinity could be organised at lower costs. The KESP 2017–2021 speaks rather in favour of maintaining current employment levels in education (MEST, 2016, see KESP section 1.3 on 'Social considerations').

Adequate educational planning and an adjustment of the network of education institutions and staff would allow the Kosovo government to make economies of scale and to invest saved funds into upgrading facilities and improving the quality and outcomes of education and training. The ultimate aim must be to develop relevant skills for both young people and adults.

Adjusting the labour market situation will not be easy, with many new entrants for the years to come requiring continuous focus on economic development and job creation.

KAS has been collecting Labour Force Survey (LFS) data for the working-age population, i.e. those aged 15 to 64, for a number of years now. However, this data is seen as 'unreliable' (Nimani, no year) or 'suffer[ing] from questionable validity' (MCC, 2018, p. 8). As a consequence, the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) undertook a large-scale, one-off Labour Force and Time Use Survey covering the period May to July 2017 (MCC, 2018). Both surveys use Eurostat definitions. MCC data provides a more optimistic picture. However, most data is not directly comparable, as MCC considered Kosovo's working population to be for those aged 15 to 74.

Divergence of data is likely due to 'the higher rates of agricultural and unpaid family workers captured by the MCC study. These individuals seem to have been classified as economically inactive in past estimates, artificially dampening employment rates. [...] past estimates are substantially more aligned with the colloquial, rather than economic, definition of employment' (MCC, 2018, p. 23). Another reason for the divergence of data is widespread informal employment and people declaring themselves inactive or unemployed rather than informally employed in official surveys. For labour market entrants, especially women, the informal sector is often the only way to find a job in an economy that provides an extremely limited number of jobs (Pupovci, 2019, p. 28).

Labour market participation (for those aged 15 to 64) in Kosovo has been rising since 2015, to (a still low) 42.8% in 2017, which compares to a regional average of 62.2% in the six Western Balkan (WB6) countries. In other words, 57.2% of Kosovo's working-age population were economically inactive in 2017 (KAS, 2018). According to the Eurostat definition, this means that they were not employed and were not active in searching for employment over the four weeks prior to the LFS and/or were ready to start work within two weeks.

Table 5: Activity rate, % of 15- to 64-year-olds, 2012–2017

Source: KAS, LFS data, online database ('Labour market/Yearly indicators')

According to MCC (2018), the labour force participation rate reached 49.6%, which is a better rate than the official rate, considering also the wider age range (15–74). Labour force participation was highest in Gjakova and lowest in Ferizaj. MCC also found that, among the 50.4% of the economically inactive population, '85.4% reported never having been regularly employed before' (MCC, 2018, p. 10).

The employment rate for those aged 20 to 64 was 34.4% in 2017 (WB6 average: 56.0%; EU28 average: 72.1%, EU target 2020: 75%), which presents an improvement over 2016 (32.3%). The gender gap is very high – only 14.6% of working-age females were employed in 2017, compared to 54.0% of working-age males.

Table 6: Employment rate, % of 20- to 64-year-olds, 2012–2017

Source: KAS, LFS data, online database ('Labour market/Yearly indicators')

The highest rate of employment for males can be found in the age group 45 to 54, while for females it is the age group 25 to 34.

MCC (2018) established an employment rate of 41.1% (2017; age group 15–74), evidencing also 'a stark gender divide, with males employed at 2.4 times the rate of females (58.3% and 24.1%, respectively)' (MCC, 2018, p. 10).

Out of 42.8% of the economically active population, as many as 30.5% were unemployed in 2017 – a 3 percentage point (pp) reduction over 2016 (27.5%) (KAS, 2018). Unemployment affects 7.9% more females than males.

Table 9: Unemployment rate, % of 15- to 64-year-olds, 2012–2017

Source: KAS, LFS data, online database ('Labour market/Yearly indicators')

MCC established a national unemployment rate of 16.3% (2017; 15–74), with notable differences again between females (22.4%) and males (13.6%) (MCC, 2018, p. 11).

Although tertiary qualifications act as a better safeguard against unemployment than lower qualifications, the unemployment rate for holders of such qualifications still remains relatively high – at 18% in 2017.

Table 10: Unemployment rate by educational attainment, % of 15- to 64-year-olds

Notes: Low: No school or I–VII/IX classes; Medium: secondary vocational and secondary gymnasium; High: tertiary; VET: secondary vocational. m = missing data.
Source: ETF calculations from KAS data (2017), online database ('Labour market/Yearly indicators').

Most unemployed people remain so for a period longer than 12 months, which equally affects men and women.

Table 11: Long-term unemployment, % of 15- to 64-year-olds

Source: Data for 2012–2016: KAS, 'Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Kosovo', Prishtina, 2017; Data for 2017: KAS (data received)

According to the MCC survey, 33.6% or one third of the unemployed individuals have been searching for a job for more than 12 months (MCC, 2018, p. 72).

Not finding a job is compounded by the problem of highly limited opportunities to engage in further education and training and enhance one's skills, which translates into a high share of young people not in employment, education or training (NEETs). NEETs accounted for 27.4% of the young population in 2017, which contrasts with the WB6 average of 22.3% (WB/wiiw, 2019).

Upper secondary education, divided into general and vocational secondary education streams, is not compulsory. This is an issue, as it prompts some young people to leave education early, especially those with poor learning outcomes and/or from disadvantaged backgrounds. 'Early leaving' is defined as those young people aged 18 to 24 who have left education without completing upper secondary education. Despite improvements over the past few years, in 2017 this still concerned more than one in ten young people aged 18 to 24 in Kosovo. Females are more affected by this phenomenon than males (13.1% vs 11.4% in 2017). Some young people do not have secondary school facilities or only have unattractive offers in their vicinity and may not be in a position to go elsewhere.

Table 14: Early leavers from education, % of 18- to 24-year-olds

Source: KAS

MEST and local actors need to sustain and expand their positive efforts to ensure inclusion of all children in both compulsory and upper secondary education. This is important because skills deficiencies reinforce existing inequalities. Individuals from families with lower education backgrounds have persistently fared worse in basic skills tests, have used and processed less knowledge, and scored lower in skills that are important for success in the labour market (World Bank, 2018a). Low educational attainment is nowadays considered inadequate for preparing people to cope with work and life challenges and puts people at a disadvantage in the labour market, as we have seen in section 2.2.

Secondary vocational education itself faces a number of issues with regard to quality and relevance, despite major improvements in pilot institutions in recent years.

A recent survey by the European Training Foundation (ETF) on the conditions and professional development of teaching staff in VET (ETF, 2018) involved teachers and directors from 62 vocational schools and Centres of Competence (CoCs) in Kosovo[8] The response rate was 26.3%. Unfortunately, the survey did not make a distinction between general and vocational subject teachers in VET institutions. Hence, results have to be interpreted with caution, in particular as regards teachers of vocational theory and practice.
. The survey reveals that, formally, the teaching workforce is highly qualified. '74% of current VET teachers report that they have achieved a master degree or equivalent, 12% a bachelor degree or equivalent and 1% a PhD'. In addition, 65% of respondents declared that the content of the subject they teach was covered during their formal education and training, 28% declared that it was partially covered' (ibid., p. 15).

However, 'only 35% of vocational teachers have completed initial education, 34% are in the process of training and preparation, while 30% did not complete initial education and are not in training' (ibid., p. 15). The Faculty of Education offers a Master's degree for VET teachers, but only for a small number of participants. 'Direct interactions with employers are unusual for about 50% of teachers and lecturers so they cannot benefit from an up-to-date understanding or social contact with the world of work' (ibid., p. 30). Finally, 'although some teachers are not qualified for the subjects they teach they are not offered relevant training' (ibid., p. 63).

Most teachers in Kosovo have received a licence which requires participation in continuous professional development (CPD). However, VET teacher licensing 'does not take into account the VET teacher training programmes developed by different donors', including the EU KOSVET, GIZ, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), Danida and Luxembourg Development Cooperation (LuxDev) projects, even though the MEST Teacher Training Division had been involved in its design before 2013. In general, teachers in VET identify the lack of relevant CPD as 'the major barrier' to participating (ibid., p. 63). The process of teacher performance assessment has not yet started (ibid., p. 64).

MEST's Strategic Teacher Development Framework defines the quality and standards for teacher competences at different stages – from pre-service education, introduction into the profession and throughout career development. This is an example where general education standards for teachers cannot simply be extended to VET: competences and CPD programmes for VET teachers should meet the criteria of the National Qualifications Authority (NQA) for validation and accreditation.

MEST, municipalities and schools are formally in charge but lack the mechanisms and capacity for organising and coordinating sufficient and relevant CPD for VET teachers. The Education Inspectorate does not judge the quality of teaching and learning. The Agency for VET and Adult Education (AVETAE) does play some role in supporting and coordinating CPD, but mainly for the six CoCs only. In addition, AVETAE offers 'a supplementary pedagogical programme nationally for beginning vocational teachers' (ibid., p. 41).

Sustainable financial resources to fund professional teacher development remains an issue. Schools cannot generate their own income and implement training in line with annual development plans. CPD for VET teachers is mainly designed and implemented by donors.

The shortage or inadequacy of instructional materials hinders the quality of instruction. Around 40% of teachers point to a lack of teaching materials, appropriate tools and equipment in order to acquire practical skills. Around 50% report a lack of sufficient consumables to develop practical skills (ibid., p. 30). The same proportion laments 'insufficient access to reliable and appropriate computer hardware, software and internet in order to use digital technology in their respective subjects' (ibid., p. 30). According to the evaluation report on the education strategy (KEEN, 2017), appropriate teaching and learning materials are available only for 24 out of 135 programmes, with the rest requiring improvisation.

According to the teachers and principals consulted in December 2018, there is an issue of identifying and prioritising the needs for resources in consultation with schools and teachers. Better use should be made of existing resources and steps planned to meet the gaps. School principals wish to have more discretion over the courses they offer, teacher salaries and the school budget. Ambitious teachers might be entrusted with the task of leading on the improvement of teaching, developing new instructional materials and liaising with employers. However, their teaching load would need to be reduced and extra responsibilities should be rewarded. Career licensing should be linked to the professional development of VET teachers, and relevant CPD offers need to be in place. Those have been developed by donors and should be taken into consideration. Teacher training needs need to be linked to curricula based on quality-assured qualifications, meeting NQA criteria.

The prevailing subject-based approach to curricula and the insufficient orientation towards skills; the lack of insights into the world of work and the skills of teachers; the above-mentioned shortage of relevant teaching materials, equipment and consumables; and a lack of relations with businesses to arrange for company internships of VET students currently form obstacles to developing more relevant practical skills and enhancing graduates' employability.