Ukraine: data on the impact of Russian aggression on education and training
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the ETF has been monitoring its impact on education and the labour market every week. These updates - a compilation of information, data and related analytics - are intended to provide an accurate and reliable picture of what is happening in the country. The ETF prides itself on being a source of precise insight and the extent to which its updates can be trusted depends entirely on one thing – the quality of the evidence.
Drawing on highly credible sources that include Ukrainian ministries, international organisations and research collaborations such as with the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), the analyses paint a devastating picture of a country where 14 million people have been displaced (half of them fleeing abroad), and where poverty rates look set to increase tenfold from 1.8% in 2021 to 18.5% in 2023.
Stylianos Karagiannis, Human Capital Development Statistician at the ETF, has the responsibility for compiling and publishing the weekly Ukraine updates. “Information on Ukraine is everywhere” he says, “but knowing which sources to use is key”. Stylianos explains that international bodies and agencies, such as the UNHCR, are the most reliable sources of information. “These are well-established organisations with proven expertise and methodologies in providing the most complete and accurate statistics possible, often in very challenging circumstances”.
And the Russian aggression against Ukraine is, indeed, a very challenging and constantly-moving situation. The Ukrainian authorities are a fundamental source of information, their proximity to events on the ground facilitating accurate and consistent information gathering resulting in highly reliable data. Chief among them, the Ukrainian authorities in collaboration with international organisations record the huge movement of people, both those internally displaced as well as those crossing Ukraine’s borders into neighbouring safe countries. The significant movement of a population, both internally and externally, brings about untold disruption. “Being forced to stop work and school, and having to flee your home, are very traumatic experiences. The longer it continues, the more devastating the long-term impact” (for a review see Akbulut-Yuksel, May 2022)
Designed to give the ETF’s audience of policymakers, teachers, researchers and other stakeholders interested in education and labour markets targeted information on the situation, the reports describe the enormous challenges currently confronting Ukraine, as well as the challenges it will face to rebuild its society and economy when the war finally ends.
The weekly analysis shows the extent of the damage to people, employment and education. As of 16 September 2022, seven months after the invasion started, there are 2,551 school buildings damaged or totally destroyed, and an additional 130 vocational education and training (VET) facilities damaged and destroyed. Of the remaining infrastructure, more than 4,000 facilities are now being used for purposes other than education, and 25% of Ukraine’s teachers are now involved in services and duties other than teaching. The extent of the damage and destruction is shocking but the real tragedy is the number of learners who, as a consequence of the global pandemic and now the war, are experiencing an incredible disruption to their education (for reference see Angrist, Djankov, Goldberg, Patrinos).
Reinstating the delivery of education in person was essential after the pandemic but the aggression has resulted in less than 30% of schools being able to reopen and therefore a continued reliance on online learning.
In addition, there is little doubt that the trauma and fear Ukrainian people are experiencing will have a tremendous effect on their physical and mental health, an effect that may last for life and have consequences for the future labour market. There are already a number of initial studies providing mounting and alarming evidence on the potential impact that the Russian invasion may have on human capital, as well as the negative physical and mental health outcomes of children who are exposed to war and large-scale destruction (See World Bank (May 2022). Education: Impact of the War in Ukraine. Ukraine Sectoral Briefs).
The Kyiv School of Economics, another trusted source of analysis included in the ETF's weekly roundup, is using the statistics on damage and destruction of infrastructure, industry and enterprise to estimate the financial impact on the country. “The estimated costs of damages to the educational sector are put at $4.4b and for industry and business services it’s $9.7b”, explains Karagiannis. “Set against the context of all sectors, the financial damage equates to $114.5b”. But the statistic that is spiraling the most is the estimated reconstruction and recovery costs. For the education sector, the costs are in the region of $5.4b, for industry and business services, the costs increase to $19.7b. Overall reconstruction and recovery estimates for the country are placed at a staggering $197.8b. “The longer the aggression continues, the more these estimates will increase” says Karagiannis.
Analysis of the labour market reveals the long-term impact on workers and employment opportunities. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) currently estimates employment losses for 2022 at 30%, but if hostilities escalate it expects them to rise to nearly 45%. The World Bank’s research corroborates this and anticipates an increase in the poverty rate, from 1.8% in 2021 to 18.5% in 2023 (see The Invasion in Ukraine in Numbers 23 Sep 2022_FINAL2.pdf)
The weekly update is important, but it is the look at what the future may hold which underscores the importance of evidence collection and analysis. “Analysis of current conflicts can help to draw conclusions for future policy advice” explains Karagiannis. “Understanding the financial impacts across all sectors informs the aid and reconstruction response needed from the international community”.
With so much information available and so many organisations reporting the information, why does the ETF feel it is important to produce its own weekly round-up? “Doing the hard work to cross-reference data and pull together these disparate sources of information means we can share our unique compilation with a targeted audience”. As the ETF is the European agency providing expertise on human capital, education and transition to labour markets in the regions surrounding Europe, this snapshot delivers trusted insights and can activate policymakers into making quick and effective decisions for the here and now – on current and future needs. Thinking longer-term, a weekly compilation of data and analytics focused on education and employment complements the ETF’s data intelligence gathering for policy analysis and progress monitoring that has been ongoing for over two decades. It can quickly feed into discussions and the identification of actions needed to help the country rebuild once the aggression has ended.
As the famous saying goes, knowledge is power.
Data and analyses collected by the ETF from various sources.
Visit the ETF website to see the weekly update, “The Invasion of Ukraine: The Impact in Numbers”