Four years on: Rebuilding skills and hope in Ukraine
On the 4th anniversary of Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s skills and economy are showing remarkable resilience. What lessons can we learn from this?
This week marks four years since Russia launched its full‑scale and illegal invasion of Ukraine in an act that has impacted the lives of millions of people and reshaped Europe’s security along with the region’s human capital development systems. EU leaders today reaffirm that Ukraine’s resilience continues to inspire Europe, even as civilian and critical infrastructure, including schools, remain deliberate targets of attack.
At the European Training Foundation, we work to understand how countries invest in people through education, skills, and lifelong learning. On this anniversary, the findings of our latest Cross‑Country Monitoring Report shed light on how Ukraine’s human capital development system is coping under extraordinary circumstances.
Ukraine is losing its people, yet finding ways to grow
Ukraine’s demographic reality is stark. The country has experienced an 8.4% population decline, one of the steepest across the ETF partner region, driven by displacement, migration, and the heavy toll of war.
This loss touches every school, training centre, and workplace. A shrinking youth population means fewer learners. Fewer adults mean fewer workers. For a country preparing for reconstruction on an unprecedented scale, this is a deep structural challenge.
Yet despite this, Ukraine is showing signs of economic resilience. According to our report, GDP grew by 2.9%, marking a rebound after the initial shock of the invasion. The National Bank of Ukraine projects GDP growth of 1.8% in 2025 based on its end‑January 2026 outlook, amid energy and labor shortages.
It is growth from a low base, but it is as notable as it is measurable. Furthermore, it’s also a testament to the determination of Ukrainian institutions, businesses, and people.
Ukraine’s skills system is under pressure
War leaves long shadows across education and training. The effects are visible in the data:
- 42.4% of 15‑year‑olds underachieve in mathematics, reflecting disrupted schooling, displacement, and trauma.
- Adult participation in training has collapsed to 0.5%, one of the lowest levels in the region.
- Many school leaders report inadequate infrastructure, a consequence of targeted attacks and resource shortages.
Each percentage point represents real learners, children struggling through interrupted education, adults unable to retrain or requalify, and teachers trying to maintain continuity in impossible conditions.
Signs of strength: Resilience in VET and human capital
Even amid disruption, Ukraine’s skills system shows remarkable resilience.
The VET programme‑completion score is an ETF System Performance Indicator that captures the share of learners who successfully complete their initial VET programmes, based on harmonised and comparable international data. Ukraine scores 78/100 on VET programme completion, making it one of the strongest performers among ETF partner countries.
Additionally, tertiary attainment remains comparatively high, and the structure of employment still reflects a diversified economy.
These foundations matter. They are the scaffolding for reconstruction, from rebuilding homes and power systems to enabling digital transformation and modern manufacturing.
Europe’s commitment, backed by evidence
On this anniversary, EU institutions reaffirm their continued political, financial, and humanitarian support for Ukraine, including nearly €200 billion since 2022, and despite recent obstacles to provide a further €90 billion planned for 2026–27 to stabilise Ukraine’s budget, defence, and energy systems, the EU still seeks to overcome vetoes and support Ukraine.
The ETF seeks to ensure that human capital remains central to this support.
Our data helps Ukraine and the EU:
- target investment where skills shortages are critical,
- understand learning losses and training gaps,
- rebuild VET systems aligned with reconstruction needs,
- and strengthen institutions that anchor long‑term resilience.
Moreover, the ETF is contributing directly to Ukraine’s ongoing reform agenda linked to EU accession, resilience and recovery. Through the dedicated ETF Ukraine Task Force, the ETF provides targeted analytical support, policy advice, and capacity‑building to help align Ukraine’s skills, VET and lifelong learning reforms with EU standards. The Task Force works closely with national institutions to strengthen evidence‑based policymaking, advance qualification system reforms, and accelerate the modernisation of VET needed for reconstruction and future EU membership.
A moment to honour, reflect and rebuild
As the EU stated, Ukrainians remain “formidable in their fortitude, determination and resilience.” The statistics in our report bring this resilience into focus. They show a country under immense pressure, yet still demonstrating economic recovery, strong VET outcomes, and a clear commitment to maintaining its human capital system.
And they show where support must continue in rebuilding learning environments, ensuring access to training, and equipping Ukraine’s people with the skills they need for a just and lasting recovery.
Investing in skills is investing in Ukraine’s people, its sovereignty, its future, and its path to peace.
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