Prepared in 2020, this ETF assessment provides an analysis based on the outcomes of the Torino Process national report for Jordan, which drew on a standardised framework questionnaire for national reporting (the National Reporting Framework – NRF). The national report was compiled by a national expert under the supervision of the Torino Process national coordinator in the TVSD Commission, and it incorporates comments and evidence generated in face-to-face and written consultations with national stakeholders.

The ETF assessment starts with a country overview and a brief description of the strategic plans and national policy priorities of Jordan (Section 1, Subsections 2 and 3). This is followed by an overview of the issues related to the development and use of human capital in the country (Section 2) and an in-depth discussion of problems in this area that in the view of the ETF require immediate attention (Section 3). Section 4 presents conclusions.

The assessment process involved an extensive phase of desk research based on responses to the NRF and the preparation of an issues paper with an overview of themes for discussion in the present report, which were then finalised in consultations within the ETF. An advanced draft of the ETF assessment was circulated to national stakeholders and international partners to verify the findings and recommendations, after which the assessment was discussed at a virtual dissemination event with stakeholders on 9 December 2020.

From the standpoint of regional policy dialogue, the findings and recommendations of the ETF Torino Process assessment provide elements to inform future regional initiatives within the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean area, as well as ongoing discussions on post-2020 programming. The findings of the report will also feed into the current dialogue, led by the Union for the Mediterranean and the European Commission, on monitoring the progress of the 2019 Ministerial Declaration on Employment and Labour, which underlines a range of issues, including the importance of reforming education and training systems in order to respond to the challenges posed by ensuring employment, employability, and decent work[4] For the importance of investment in education, higher education and training systems, including vocational education and training (VET), as well as lifelong reskilling and upskilling of workers to prepare them for constant changes in the world of work, see Ministerial Declaration on Employment and Labour, April 2019, p. 4.
. A cross-country report will consolidate all the outcomes of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Torino Process assessments and contribute to the monitoring and evaluation framework to be developed as a concrete output of the Declaration[5] The Labour Ministers asked the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) Secretariat, with help from volunteer countries, to coordinate the setting up of a framework for national monitoring processes, notably by organising meetings, providing relevant information, making contacts and engaging in networking, and cooperating with country stakeholders and international organisations. The Ministers invited the European Commission and the relevant EU agencies, in particular the European Training Foundation, to provide their expertise. See the Ministerial Declaration on Employment and Labour, paragraph 29, April 2019.
.

Like other ETF assessments, this paper is not meant to be exhaustive. The national report for Jordan covers a broad selection of problems revolving around human capital development and use, while the focus of this assessment is on challenges that the ETF recommends addressing as a matter of priority.

Jordan is a country of 10 million inhabitants (10.1 million in 2019) with limited natural resources and a high degree of dependence on foreign assistance. Three-quarters of the population live in three of the 12 governorates in which the country is divided: Amman (42%), Irbid (18.5%) and Zarqa (14.3%). In only a few years since 2015, the population of Jordan has increased by 9% owing to a massive influx of refugees from neighbouring countries. At the time of this assessment, Jordan hosted approximately 1.3 million Syrians, 636 000 Egyptians, 130 000 Iraqis, and 200 000 refugees and migrants of other nationalities[6] NRF A.1.1
.

The population of Jordan is young. A sizeable share of the population (52.9% in 2019) is below the age of 25, and youth aged 15–24 account for 19.4% of the total population (Table 1). However, a considerable proportion of these young people (38.1% in 2017) are not in employment, education or training. Another challenge for the economy is that only 34.3% of the working-age population is economically active, while 19.1% of them were unemployed in 2019 (Table 1).

Table 1. Selected country context indicators

Source: ETF database

Demographic and migration developments create economic pressures that have a negative impact on the country's economic development. The most pressing economic imperative faced by Jordanian authorities continues to be the need to increase investment, create jobs and reduce poverty. GDP per capita has grown from USD PPP 9 331 in 2015 to USD PPP 10 317 in 2019.The economy of Jordan is considered to be open and the country itself an emerging market[7] NRF A.1.1
. Nevertheless, the World Bank reclassified Jordan as a low middle-income country in 2017. Other economic challenges include a shortage of natural resources, a high rate of unemployment and underemployment, and a large informal sector, which accounts for 25% of national income according to a recent estimate (Al Deen Al Nawas, 2020).

The workforce in Jordan counts close to 2.1 million people and includes those who work, those who are unemployed, and immigrants who hold a work permit. The activity rate is rather low (36.2% in 2018 on average), particularly for women (15.4% in the same year). Youth between the ages of 15 and 24 account for the biggest share of unemployment (39.2%).

The national report for Jordan describes several major labour market challenges. The challenges include persistently high youth unemployment, the low activity rate of women, a lack of reliable information about labour market needs, weak career guidance, weak private-sector involvement in shaping the focus and priorities of human capital development through VET, a high degree of informality (26% of GDP before the Syrian refugee crisis), and unfavourable employment conditions in most sectors and professions[8] NRF B.1.1
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According to the Torino Process national report, political instability in the region and its associated refugee flows are among the most significant factors to have an impact on the society and economy of Jordan. This is because they complicate the pressing task of catering to the needs of an increasingly diverse and populous group of vulnerable people who require attention, support, and sustainable policy solutions. The group also includes people living below the poverty line, who account for 16% of the Jordanian population[9] Ibid.
. At the same time the need for employment among Jordanians, especially young people, is increasing at a rate that exceeds the supply of jobs. There are 60 000 new entrants into the labour market each year and this number is on the rise, whereas roughly 50 000 jobs have been created annually over the most recent years (ETF, 2016b).

These and other challenges have prompted Jordanian authorities in different sectors to develop a number of strategic responses and plans and engage in various partnerships with the donor community to ensure their implementation. The next section sets out a detailed description of the responses and plans, as well as the strategic context and priorities in Jordan at the time of the assessment.

Jordan has put in place a range of strategies for social and economic development in all sectors under the responsibility of its government. Four of the strategies lay out the country's priorities and commitments in the area of human capital development and the contributions expected from its TVET sector: the National Agenda 2006–2015, which sets the priorities for all subsequent strategies on human capital development[10] NRF A.2.4.1
; the National Employment Strategy 2011–2020; the National E-TVET Strategy 2014–2020; and the National Human Resources Development Strategy 2016–2025 (NHRD). Overall, education and training reforms in Jordan are taking place in a strategic context that was established before the most recent refugee crisis and thus focus almost exclusively on a long-term vision for the development of the country and its human capital.

The National Employment Strategy (NES), for example, commits to improving the standard of living for Jordanians through increased employment, wages and benefits and higher productivity. To this end, education and training providers are called to graduate a 'skilled and motivated labour force, armed with employable skills and technical know-how in demand by the labour market'[11] National Employment Strategy 2011–2020
. The NES uses an integrated approach that targets investment, fiscal and monetary policies, education and higher education, vocational training, and social welfare through the lens of employment (ETF, 2014), as shown in Box 1.

The Council of Ministers has also instigated a comprehensive implementation/action plan and an implementation team for the NES under the leadership of the Ministry of Labour, while the VET-related effort mostly focuses on governance-related reforms that include changes to the composition of the Employment, Technical and Vocational Education and Training (ETVET) board[12] At the time of preparation of this assessment, the ETVET board was already disbanded.
and the inclusion of TVET providers in the accreditation system under the responsibility of the Accreditation and Quality Assurance Commission for Higher Education (AQACHEI). Broadly, the goal of the governance-related reforms is to raise the attractiveness of VET for Jordanians and boost work-based learning.

The National E-TVET Strategy 2014–2020, which links to the broader HCD commitments in the NSE, covers five pillars: governance; the labour market relevance of education and training; the inclusion of women, youth, and people with disabilities; better monitoring systems; and sustainable funding for TVET. The purpose is to establish TVET as a driver of employment, prosperity and social inclusion through better quality assurance and better coordination between the bodies in charge of VET, as well as through deeper involvement from social partners and the business community.

At the time of this assessment, the strategic goals have been translated into several long-term reform undertakings. One of them is the development of the National Qualifications Framework or NQF (TVET qualification levels extend from level 2 to level 6 of the new 10-level NQF), while another is the establishment of national sector skills councils (SSCs) with the support of international donors (GIZ, ILO, EU and EBRD)[13] NRF A.2.4
. The authorities have also embarked on building a labour market information system (LMIS) to inform strategic decision-making in TVET. However, the most important governance-related change is the establishment of the Technical and Vocational Skills Development Commission (TVSD Commission), which will replace the ETVET Council. The new TVSD Commission will have its own council headed by the Minister of Labour and most of the council's members (8 of 14) will come from the private sector.

In addition to these TVET sector-specific goals and actions, the VET sector is embedded as a key area in a broader set of strategic obligations and commitments, most of which are set out in the National Human Resources Development Strategy 2016–2025 (NHRD). The NHRD aims at a 'substantial increase in the number of youth and adults who have relevant technical and vocational skills for employment, decent jobs and entrepreneurship by 2025'[14] NRF B.2.2
. To achieve this aim, the reform actions include the establishment of flexible horizontal and vertical pathways for students that also allow for the recognition of alternative forms of learning; the retraining of VET teachers and the setting of new quality standards for VET providers in coordination with the private sector; the improvement of governance arrangements for the sake of better accountability of the TVET sector vis-à-vis its stakeholders; the raising of TVET's attractiveness as a choice of study; and the improvement of funding arrangements.

The implementation of the strategic objectives described above depends on the involvement of the donor community. Overall, the TVET reform agenda in Jordan is heavily dependent on external funding. According to the national report, the main donors involved in the support of TVET reforms are the European Union, USAID, GAC (Canada), BMZ (Germany), the Department for International Development, the UK, JICA (Japan), KOICA (South Korea), the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation (The Netherlands), UNHCR, the World Food Programme, Finland, Iceland, Australia and the World Bank[15] NRF A.3.5
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In the past period, 36 TVET-related projects were underway with a combined budget of over JOD 223 million. Most of the projects focused on Amman and the governorates of Irbid, Zarqa and Mafraq. In addition to the geographical bias of donor interventions, which tend to focus on Amman and three of the 12 governorates, there is also a thematic bias. Some 47% of all projects had a focus on job placement services, 42% on boosting workforce participation, and 33% were devoted to career guidance. At the time of this assessment, other important areas of commitment to reform, such as accreditation and quality assurance, or the inclusion of disabled people, were left without external support, possibly because the reform plans in these areas are still too recent. Quality assurance has been part of the EU's TVET budget support programme, which provided specific technical assistance to address this priority area, while the new EU budget support treats quality assurance in education as a matter of high priority.

At the time of this assessment, most of the strategies described here were due for renewal amid mounting pressure caused by migration and refugee flows from neighbouring countries that are affected by political instability and armed conflict. For the new generation of strategic plans, the difficult task ahead is to strike a balance between ensuring the continuation of a long-term reform agenda established to deliver opportunities, prosperity and better standards of living for all Jordanians[16] 'Improved quality of life' (National Agenda), 'better standards of living' (National Employment Strategy), 'prosperity and social inclusion' (E-TVET Strategy), 'skills and decent jobs' (National Human Resources Development Strategy).
and designing policies that address the imminent challenge of accommodating an increasing number of migrants and refugees and reaping their workforce potential.