Preparation of the new Education Strategy 2030 creates for Serbia a superb opportunity to strengthen the lifelong learning orientation of the education and training system. Lifelong learning entails a new paradigm, but the country can build on the significant reforms and progress attained in the last decade to move to such an important step.

The consultation phase can build on different scenarios, depending on where Serbia would like to be in 10 years from now and beyond. The following are two polar hypotheses that have the purpose of starting a debate, which should ideally unfold shortly with participation and energy of many stakeholders from the public, private and non-profit spheres of society, both nationally and locally.

In one scenario, Serbia views itself as a competitive economy characterised by products and services, the majority of which are high value added. A substantive shift occurs from medium-level to knowledge-intensive jobs, as a consequence of investments in scientific areas, innovation, related physical and digital infrastructure, and human capital.

In another scenario, Serbia is going to strengthen the sectors that characterise its economic fabric while newer activities continue to grow at their own pace. There is a partial shift from medium-level to knowledge-intensive employment, which is as a consequence of the modernised physical and digital infrastructure, and investments in scientific areas, innovation and human capital.

Both are positive scenarios. The first envisages maximum change, whereas the second plans for moderate change and progressive consolidation of the ongoing business. In the two situations, human capital is central and that is what will emerge from the new Education Strategy 2030.

Serbia will delineate the most suitable scenario through discussions about and analyses of the Education Strategy 2030 formulation process. The outcome of this process will likely be mid-way between the two above simplistic outlines, but far better articulated.

All scenarios can rely on the assumption that economic growth, the EU accession process and regional integration will continue providing highly favourable conditions for investing in human capital development – like a once in a generation, terrific window of opportunity.

For the Education Strategy 2030 discussions, the ETF assessment is recommending focusing on three major areas:

1. the quality and quantity of continuing formal, non-formal and informal learning opportunities so that every individual always has the chance to update or renew their skills;

2. the acceleration of the initial vocational education adjustment to the changes in the economy, in order to prepare young people for the labour market that, for the foreseeable future, will remain uncertain; and
3. the fine tailoring of education, training and ALMPs for many people so they can overcome the effective or potential vulnerability they experience.

All these areas involve policy commitment, expertise and financing. Mobilising financial resources is necessary to reposition education and training in the lifelong learning dimension and to make human capital consistent with the level of the country's ambitions.