The first and probably most readily available sources of support for returnees are vocational courses offered as an active labour market measure (ALMM) for those who register as job-seekers. One of the advantages of these measures is that they are available on a regular basis as a conventional element of national employment policy and do not depend on donor funding or a project activity. Another advantage is that they come at no cost to their beneficiaries.

However, despite the accessibility of such measures, their coverage appears to be limited and their outreach to returnees is modest. In 2017 only 2 629 people, or 6.2% of those registered as unemployed, participated in a training (Table 7). Of these, only 97 were returnees and in the previous year (2016), their share was even lower (79 of 2 902 ALMM training participants)[39] NRF B.1.8.
. These figures seem low, given that the latest available data on returnees puts their number at around 170 000 (IOM, 2017).

Table 7. Participants in labour market training by age and educational attainment, share of total, 2013–2017 (%)

Note: ALMM, active labour market measure. “m” stands for missing data.

Source: ETF database.

The national report also notes that some public and private providers offer short training courses for adults and specifically for those who are unemployed, and remarks that the number of participants is particularly high among young people. However, no further information is available about the profile of participants, and there is no indication whether any of the beneficiaries are returning migrants or individuals who intend to migrate[40] NRF C.1.6.
.

The current NDS for Moldova describes a growth model that seeks to move the economy away from one that relies on consumption to one based on innovation and private investment driven by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) (Martinez et al., 2015)[41] See also NDS, Moldova 2020.
. A key action in support of this ambition is the launch of the Programme for Attracting Remittances into the Economy (PARE 1+1), which seeks to capitalise on return migration and remittances to create and expand the domestic SME sector.

Established in 2010, the programme is implemented and monitored by the Organisation for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Development (ODIMM), a non-profit, quasi-governmental organisation under the overall supervision of the Ministry of Economy. The declared purpose of PARE is to boost the amount of remittances and create thousands of new businesses and jobs, the majority of them in rural areas[42] NRF B.1.8 and https://odimm.md/en/about-us
.

PARE is based on a '1+1' model of business financing, according to which the authorities match the financial resources invested by programme participants in their businesses, up to a certain level[43] MDL 250 000, or about EUR 12 900 at current exchange rates (mid-October 2019).
. In this way, the business owners bear half the cost of their expansion or start-up plans while the state funds the other half. In addition to this funding component, PARE also has a component for the provision of entrepreneurship/business development-related training, and a component devoted to the post-funding period in which business owners can receive assistance in the form of further training and consultancy services for development.

The training component of PARE includes 50 hours distributed over 10 days and covers modules such as business registration and legislation, business management and planning, financial management, accounting, marketing and sales, management of human resources, export procedures and free trade agreements.

It is difficult to estimate the effectiveness of PARE on the basis of the evidence available. While there are aspects of its set-up and implementation that suggest it is a promising initiative from the point of view of HCD, other aspects suggest that there are limits to its impact that could be avoided.

In the period 2017–2018, PARE provided 21 training courses for 613 beneficiaries. According to data provided in the national report, some 40% of them (243 persons) were returning migrants or their first-grade relatives, while the number of participating youths returning from migration was 257 for the overall duration of the programme. In total, PARE supported 189 businesses run by young entrepreneurs[44] NRF B.1.8.
.

Since the inception of PARE, its educational and training component has been strengthened because it is now a mandatory requirement for participation and access to funding. This change, as well as the pragmatic nature and quality of the training, have contributed to PARE becoming one of the more successful programmes featuring an HCD component in terms of outreach and coverage, especially among returning migrants. Participation in PARE training has been increasing at a rapid pace since 2010, reaching a total of 613 persons in 2017, of which close to 40% were returning migrants (Figure 8).

Figure 8. PARE 1+1 training component participation, 2010–2014 and 2017 (annual number of people trained)

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Sources: Martinez et al. (2015) and NRF B.1.8.

At the same time, the rapid growth raises questions of sustainability and efficiency as it has come at a substantial financial cost, to the extent that in some years (for instance in 2014) the number of participants and supported businesses would have exhausted the annual budget before the end of the period.

Another limitation in relation to effectiveness is the stagnant participation rate among female returnees and entrepreneurs, even though women account for well over half of all emigrants[45] NRF A.1.1.
. Since the inception of PARE in 2010, only about a third of participants in the programme have been women (Table 8). In recognition of the problem, at the time of this assessment ODIMM was piloting programmes that specifically target female entrepreneurs, although none was aimed specifically at returning migrants[46] See https://www.odimm.md/en/programs/odimm-programs for more information
.

Table 8. Share of youth and females among PARE programme beneficiaries, 2013–2018 (%)

Source: NRF B.1.8.

Another policy action in support of the labour market reintegration of returnees is the provision of information about employment opportunities and unemployment services, including information on training for job-seekers[47] NRF B.1.3.
. The national report and other sources refer to a number of donor-supported employment and information platforms, migration resource centres established within various projects (ETF, 2015a), and online resources and regular information sessions by the National Employment Agency and ODIMM, some of which cover opportunities for legal employment abroad.

At the same time, none of the information-provision measures seem to include career guidance and counselling, despite the fact that such forms of support can be a powerful tool for the professional orientation and integration of migrants (Bimrose and McNair, 2011) in both hosting and sending countries.

There is no evidence on the effectiveness of any of these measures, such as how many job-seekers use the information sources, whether there any returning migrants among them, how many have found a job with the help of information provided in this way, and what the quality is (reliability, comprehensiveness, timeliness) of the information provided.

Nevertheless, access to information of this kind is an essential form of support for job-seekers. The fact that the authorities are making such information readily available is commendable and an important prerequisite for the success of any policy in support of returning migrants.

Many returning migrants acquire skills in their job abroad in an informal or non-formal way, and the national report acknowledges that the recognition of these skills can be essential for the reintegration of migrants into the domestic labour market[48] NRF A.3.4 and C.1.6.
. For this and other policy-related reasons, in January 2019 the Ministry of Education, Culture and Research took steps to establish a national system for the validation of non-formal and informal learning for the benefit of a wide range of beneficiaries, including returnees. The corresponding order establishes the normative framework for a national validation system for the identification, documentation, evaluation and certification of knowledge and skills acquired in non-formal and informal contexts[49] See Framework Regulation on the Validation of Non-formal and Informal Education, Ministry of Education, Culture and Research Decision No. 65/2019.
.

At the time of this assessment, the system was still at the piloting stage and only four VET providers (colleges and centres of excellence) were licensed to carry out the validations. Hence, it is too early to make judgements about the effectiveness and impact of the system, although experience from other partner countries suggests that its establishment is a step in the right direction (ETF, 2015b). Still, EU experience also shows that even in cases of successful validation, there is a risk that skills acquired abroad will be devalued and that this may affect lower skilled individuals in particular, as most measures in this area tend to benefit workers with higher levels of skills and educational attainment (Souto-Otero and Villalba-Garcia, 2015).

There is an imbalance in the way that policies targeting migration focus on some phases of migration rather than others, which, in turn, leads to insufficient promotion of opportunities for circular migration.

Despite strong statements about the negative socioeconomic impact of migration, policies in Moldova still seem to be somewhat one-sided in that they prioritise reactive, remedial actions in the post-migration phase (Figure 9). The few that also address the pre-migration phase are limited to facilitating a smooth transition to host countries through awareness-raising about the dangers of illegal migration and through training to support cultural and linguistic integration in the host country (ETF, 2015a).

Figure 9. Projects to support migrants, by total number and migration phase targeted

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Sources: ETF (2015a) and http://scoreboard.mfa.gov.md/projects

This assessment does not suggest that the absence of policies restricting emigration is a shortcoming. In fact, their absence is a positive finding, as restrictive policies in this domain are seldom effective and are known for their propensity to backfire, to the disadvantage of hosting and sending countries alike, for instance by leading to a rise in illegal migration and by discouraging migrants from returning (Zimmermann, 2014). Rather, the gap in the solutions described in the national report is in what appears to be an imbalance of focus on some phases of migration over others, which, in turn, leads to insufficient promotion of opportunities for circular migration, understood as the free movement of people between home and host countries.

Circular migration is known to provide benefits for both the sending and receiving country, and for the migrants themselves, by generating and helping to distribute the financial, human and social capital generated through the employment abroad (Skeldon, 2012). From an education and training point of view, this means the creation of opportunities for cross-border education, and bi- and multilateral agreements for the recognition of professional qualifications and of educational credentials obtained abroad. This is particularly important in the case of Moldova, as most of its higher-educated emigrants do not find jobs that match their skills and also do not seek recognition of their educational credentials (ETF, 2018).

The national report refers to measures that support circular migration[50] NRF B.1.3.
, some of them in the context of the EU–Moldova Mobility Partnership, but this area of policy response seems to still be nascent. At the time of this assessment, Moldova has entered bilateral agreements for such schemes with only three countries (Bulgaria, Israel and, most recently, France), none of which address the mobility of qualifications.

Part of the problem is the general lack of progress in the area of qualifications. Moldova has developed and approved only 33 occupational standards and there is still no functioning register for the National Qualifications Framework[51] NRF C.1.5.
. The absence of standards for most occupations means that the existing qualifications are not based on standards, which means that they are unlikely to reflect labour market needs. It also makes the recognition of qualifications obtained abroad difficult, if not impossible.

Education and training measures are seldom included in the package of policy responses in support of migrants, despite their proven potential in supporting reintegration and thus preventing the wastage of human capital.

Successful programmes such as PARE 1+1 demonstrate the potential of including professional / vocational training opportunities in policies aimed at migrants, who, upon their return, are commonly confronted with uncertainty about the best way to start their own business, find a job and apply the ideas and knowledge they have acquired abroad. Therefore, tailored support in the form of training and skills-related guidance and counselling has an important role both in supporting reintegration and as a way of preventing the wastage of human capital.

Despite this insight, which is also shared in the national report, education and training measures are seldom included in the package of policy responses in support of migrants. In fact, the latest available evidence suggests that less than 10% of all state-supported or state-sanctioned activities feature an education and training component (Figure 12), although most of them are intended to help people make the best of their skills and knowledge upon their return.

Figure 10. Projects in support of migrants, by total number, phase and training component

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Sources: ETF (2015a) and http://scoreboard.mfa.gov.md/projects

It is surprising that education and training do not play a more prominent role than is currently the case, especially as the capacity to do so in terms of staff, know-how and connections to the employment services is already available within the network of public providers of VET[52] NRF A.2.3.
.

All activities targeting migration depend heavily on donor support. This poses a risk to the sustainability of achievements and creates coordination problems both between donors, and between donors and national authorities.

Moldova is implementing a commendable number of activities to support its population and reap the benefits of migration. To sustain the number and scale of activities, the country depends heavily on donor support, to the extent that well over 90% of all actions are fully or partially enabled through financial contributions from abroad, from partners such as the International Organization for Migration, the International Labour Organization (ILO), the United Nations Development Programme, the World Health Organisation, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, the EU Border Assistance Mission to Moldova and Ukraine, the International Centre for Migration Policy Development, Hilfswerk Austria International, the Targeted Initiative for Moldova, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, and, most notably, the EU through the Mobility Partnership programme.

Calculations based on data provided in the national report show that donor funding for VET projects over the three-year period to 2018 (including those in support of migration-related priorities) surpassed the annual public budget of Moldova for VET by a factor of 10[53] See NRF A.2.3 and NRF A.3.5, Table 10.
. This situation raises questions about the long-term sustainability of activities: none of the sources that describe activities discuss options for securing independent, self-sustainable funding. The absence of plans for how to continue when priorities or partnerships change poses a risk to the sustainability of initiatives and their achievements.

The donor dependence and diversity of high-stakes funding partnerships also creates a coordination challenge both between donors, and between national authorities and donors. Duplication seems to be quite common, leading to wastage of resources, but it is also the case that certain agencies and donors reportedly hold a 'monopoly' over areas and projects, which can be a source of additional tension and diminishes the overall effectiveness of efforts in support of migrants (ETF, 2015a).

Eurostat defines early leavers from education as persons aged 18–24 who have not completed more than lower secondary education and who are not involved in further education and training. In 2017 about a fifth of young people in Moldova fell into this category, a high share in terms of international comparison: in the same year the EU average was half that level (Table 12). The pattern of non-participation is also reflected in the data on tertiary attainment, which, despite considerable improvement since 2010, is still low in comparison with the situation in the EU.

Table 12. Selected 2020 benchmarks: tertiary attainment and early leavers from education, EU and Moldova, 2010 and 2017 (%)

Note: Data includes all Moldovan nationals with an active address registration in the country, irrespective of their primary place of residence.

Source: ETF database.

Most of those who drop out seem to do so at the transition point to upper secondary education, after which a substantial share of students discontinue their school attendance in the final two years of compulsory education (Table 13). This effectively deprives them of access to major educational pathways to higher education and the labour market. (For a structural overview of the education system of Moldova, see Annex 2.) Table 12 also shows that the share of early leavers is highest in rural areas[63] Some reports, such as UNICEF (2015), note that the highest exclusion rates are among Roma children, but lack of data prevents a proper comparison and analysis in this chapter.
. Other sources point out that boys are more likely than girls to leave school early. Indeed, in 2016 (the latest year for which such data is available), 26% of rural youth and close to 24% of young men left education early. The share of early leavers among young women was considerably lower (16%), while the problem was least common among urban youth (10.9%) (ETF, 2018).

Table 13. Enrolment in general schools by age, grade and place of residence, 2017 (%)

Notes: Data includes all Moldovan nationals with an active address registration in the country, irrespective of their primary place of residence.; 1. The figure in brackets refers to an estimated enrolment rate in vocational schools at upper secondary level by area.

Source: Calculations based on data from the database of the National Bureau of Statistics.

It appears that the exact mechanisms of exclusion and the reasons why students opt to leave formal schooling have not yet been documented in a systematic way. Some reports suggest that the problem may be due to uneven levels of spending on education between regions of the country (ETF, 2018), while others underline that rural areas and those who live there are coping with a complex set of economic challenges that influence their choices regarding education (Ganta and Shamchiyeva, 2016)[64] See also NRF A.1.1.
.

According to recent research into factors that influence early school leaving globally, the reasons for the problem are usually highly complex. Some are linked to the student as an individual and to his or her family. Others fall within the responsibility of policy-makers and concerned the school and classroom environments ( González-Rodríguez et al., 2019).

In Moldova, too, the reasons for early school leaving appear to be complex. Disparities in educational investment and economic development across the country probably play a role, as do other factors such as unsatisfactory conditions and quality of instruction, low motivation of young people to continue learning beyond compulsory education, and gaps in the accessibility of education and training in rural areas.

It would be worth exploring this issue in more detail in a separate analysis. However, even with the limited evidence available for this assessment, it appears that in Moldova the two problems – exclusion from employment and exclusion from education and training – are mutually reinforcing. Young people who see no merit in continuing on an educational path that delivers low quality and that deprives them of a fair chance of gaining employment may decide to quit. In turn, this decision further limits their chances of successful transition, effectively turning their conviction into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

A considerable proportion of young people in Moldova who are not in education also struggle to find employment and thus fall into the NEET category. In 2017 NEETs accounted for a fifth of the youth population of the country and in 2018 this proportion was even higher (27.1%)[65] NRF C.3.1.
.

According to disaggregated data from 2015 (the latest available year, when 29% of the youth population in Moldova was NEET), some 40% of all NEETs were unskilled early leavers, followed by those with low to medium (30%) and higher skills (15%). Expressed in terms of educational attainment, some 46% of these NEETs had lower secondary education, 30% had upper secondary school, and 15% were higher education graduates[66] The total is less than 100% because of missing information for some of the NEETs.
.

The same dataset suggests that the choice of whether to take a vocational or general education path did not affect the likelihood of becoming a NEET to the same extent as gender and place of residence did. Young women and young people in rural areas were the most numerous in the NEET group (35% and 31%, respectively), followed by urban youth (26%) and young males (23%) (Figure 14).

Figure 14. Share of NEETs in the youth population by type of educational pathway (general or vocational), gender and place of residence, 2015 (%)

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Note: Data covers lower and upper secondary education.

Source: Calculations based on data from ETF (2018).

A recent sociological study into the situation of NEETs in Moldova found that the combined effect of exclusion from employment and education is one of the main determinants of NEET status, the others being individual factors, such as age and gender, socioeconomic factors such as place of residence, and institutional factors, such as poor public services (Crismaru et al., 2017).

The exclusionary processes lead to disillusionment, low self-esteem, passiveness and discouragement, which may be further reinforced by family situation (in 2016 over 45% of NEETs were prevented from participation in education or employment because family members were in need of care (Crismaru et al., 2017)), and poor communication and job application skills[67] NRF C.3.1
.

In terms of more specific actions specifically addressing labour market exclusion, the national report describes several major steps undertaken in the few years preceding this ETF assessment. The one specifically targeting young people is the programme Start for Young People: A Sustainable Home at Home. Launched in 2018, its aim is to promote youth entrepreneurship. Similar to PARE 1+1, which is discussed above, the Start programme provides young people with training, with consultations, with access to information about business service providers and suppliers of material and equipment, and with financing if their business project is innovative[68] See Government Decision No. 973 of 10 October 2018 and NRF B.1.5.
.

For young people who are registered job-seekers and would rather take a job than create one, there is a policy package comprising ALMMs. Under the joint heading of Promotion of Labour and Unemployment Insurance[69] Law No. 105 of 2018 on Promoting Employment and Unemployment Insurance.
, the measures target both prospective job candidates and employers with the aim of reducing disparities in expectations on both sides. The measures for job-seekers include vocational training for the purpose of qualification and requalification, including on-the-job training. The measures for employers include financial incentives in the form of subsidies for those who adapt existing or create new working places for job-seekers from vulnerable groups, such as people with disabilities, people from rural areas and those who are long-term unemployed[70] NRF B.1.6.
.

In addition, the National Employment Strategy 2017–2021 commits to annual actions to strengthen the link between the labour market and the VET outcomes of young graduates, as well as to the promotion of job creation through youth entrepreneurship[71] National Employment Strategy 2017–2021 and NRF C.3.3.
. A smaller number of significant measures along these lines are directed at education and training providers with the aim of supporting the successful transition of students to employment. The two most prominent measures at provider level are WBL and career guidance/counselling[72] See NRF C.3.2 – C.3.4 for details on both.
.

WBL in Moldova takes the form of unpaid internships, which are mandatory in all programmes in upper secondary VET and usually last several months. The receiving companies have formal agreements with the schools, and teachers are supposed to regularly monitor the student's progress during the internship placement. This WBL model has been in place for some years now, as have the problems that come with it, most notably the difficulty of finding internship placements[73] See also NRF D.1.1.
, which often leads to WBL taking place in the school environment instead of in the workplace, and the weak monitoring of student progress. Another WBL model that has been given high priority[74] NRF B.2.1
is dual VET, which has led to a high rate of apprenticeship enrolment and to a higher rate of youth employability[75] NRF C.3.1 and C.3.2.
.

Finally, there are a number of donor-supported but publicly endorsed projects that promote smooth school-to-work transition for young people, including individuals at risk. Some of the more prominent and wide-reaching projects have had a focus on career guidance. One example is Cariera Mea[76] http://www.carieramea.com/
, an online platform for professional guidance and orientation for children and young people. This was launched to address the needs of students between the ages of 11 and 18 and give them the opportunity to make well-informed decisions about their future career paths. Another is the Reconceptualising Professional Orientation and Career Counselling (REVOCC) project, which was funded by the Austrian Development Agency and implemented by several state bodies in support of a number of structural transformations relating to career guidance, such as the opening of regional career guidance centres.

The national report is quite open in its evaluation of such initiatives, on the one hand praising their contribution, but on the other describing their limitations, which are due to the lack of capacity of state institutions and the fragmentation of initiatives because of an absence of coordination mechanisms at national level (see also the section on shortcomings and policy gaps below)[77] NRF C.3.2.
. It is also fair to note that some of the key measures described in the national report, such as the Start for Young People and the Labour and Unemployment Insurance programmes, are too recent (2018) for their effectiveness to be assessed.

Nevertheless, the national report is rather optimistic regarding the anticipated overall effectiveness of policies: it notes that past experience with similar interventions has led to a considerable reduction in unemployment over recent years, a statement that seems to be corroborated by the labour market data (Figure 15)[78] NRF B.1.6
. The drop in youth unemployment has been particularly steep: the rate decreased from 17.8% in 2010 to 7.4% in 2018.

Figure 15. Unemployment and youth unemployment, 2010, 2015–2018, (%)

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Notes: Data covers age groups 15+ and 15–24 for youth unemployment, and includes all Moldovan nationals with an active address registration in the country, irrespective of their primary place of residence.

Source: ETF database.

Not all of the reduction in unemployment can be attributed to policy successes: demographic and migration developments also play a significant role. Judging by the rate of youth inactivity, which has been largely stagnating since 2010 (Figure 14), the impact of policies addressing the labour market exclusion of young people has been uneven, at best. Moreover, it is not clear how much of this fall in unemployment and long-term unemployment has been aided by job creation, and also to what extent job creation has benefited young people.

However, international experience confirms that self-employment can be a successful measure in helping young people to move out of inactivity and unemployment (Halabisky, 2012). Moldova has a rich repository of successful donor-supported projects that are relevant in this context, such as Cariera Mea and REVOCC, the deliverables and lessons of which may lend themselves to mainstreaming into the package of official, publicly funded policy measures against youth unemployment and inactivity.

Unlike in (many) other countries, where VET is seen as an unattractive option, education and VET are well respected in Moldova[79] NRF C.1.1.
and equality of access is described as a key principle of policy and action in that sector[80] See NRF C.2.3, Education Development Strategy 2014–2020, Education 2020 (Government Decision No. 944 of 14 November 2014) and Strategy for the Development of Technical Vocational Education 2013–2020 (Government Decision No. 97 of 1 February 2013).
.

This commitment translates into several policy responses. In the first place, the national report highlights the policy of positive discrimination in the form of access quotas for special categories of prospective students, such as individuals with a disability, orphans, those from disadvantaged ethnic minority groups, and children from large families. Students from these categories are also provided with boarding free of charge and with financial support[81] NRF C.1.2. and C.1.3.
. The same principle of equality of access also guides the policies regulating participation in continuing training and training within the framework of ALMMs. Job-seekers (including young people) from vulnerable groups are guaranteed priority access to such educational opportunities as well[82] Law No. 102-XV of 13.03.2003 on Employment and Social Protection of Persons Seeking Work.
.

For those who do not fall into any of the special categories, the Education Development Strategy (EDS) and the Strategy for the Development of Technical Vocational Education 2013–2020 envisage the development and implementation of measures to safeguard access to education, irrespective of place of residence, gender and socioeconomic background. This also includes access to lifelong learning opportunities for adults[83] EDS, Section V, Strategic Direction No.1 and Strategy for the Development of Technical Vocational Education 2013–2020, Objective 6.
.

Exclusion from education and training can be due to a multitude of factors, which makes it difficult to assess how well a given policy from the measures described here may be contributing to the resolution of the problem. It is more feasible and reliable to look at the cumulative effect of policy efforts to prevent exclusion, as reflected in the evolution of some basic indicators relating to participation in education and work (Table 13). The time for this seems appropriate, as the ETF assessment (2019) refers to the year prior to the final year (2020) of the EDS and the Strategy for the Development of Technical Vocational Education, which have been undergoing implementation since 2014 and 2013, respectively.

The choice of indicators is similar to or the same as the one used to describe the exclusion problem in this chapter and argue for its urgency. Table 14 shows the rate of early leavers from education, enrolment rate in VET, NEET rate, graduation rate from VET, and rate of economic inactivity and youth unemployment as indicators relating to the previous section on labour market exclusion. The indicators are presented by latest available value (Column 1) and reference year (Column 2), the historical value at the time of inception of the latest round of education strategies or before (Column 3), the year of the historical reference (Column 4), and the presence or absence of progress on that basis (Column 5).

Table 14. Policy EFFECTIVENESS: trends in education and employment participation

Notes: 1. For the purpose of the ETF assessment, progress is defined as a positive change of at least five percentage points between the two reference years. 2. Age group 15–24, average for both genders. 3. National average, age group 15–24. 4. Includes 2-year programmes (% of 17-year-olds), 3-year programmes (% of 18-year-olds), and 1-year programmes (% of 19-year-olds).

Sources: ETF database and database of the National Bureau of Statistics.

The data in the table shows that the only progress in terms of indicator values has been on youth unemployment, which fell substantially in the reference period, and the NEET rate, which decreased by close to 2 percentage points between 2010 and 2018. Of course, the positive evolution of these two indicators may also be attributable to factors beyond the policy actions envisaged in the education and training strategies. Nevertheless, progress is evident.

However, the lack of progress and, in fact, the deterioration in the other dimensions covered by the indicators suggest that the exclusion problems persist despite the policy responses of national authorities, and that they are particularly prevalent among indicators relating to education and training. This may be a signal that these responses need to be calibrated or even replaced. This is discussed in some detail in the following section.

Most policy measures promote first-time access to education and training programmes, but very few support student retention and graduation.

As noted in Chapter 1 of this assessment, one of the key objectives for the development of VET and education more broadly in Moldova is to facilitate participation through better access to education and training opportunities[84] See NRF A.2.4, EDS and Strategy for the Development of Technical Vocational Education 2013–2020.
. The corresponding policies are implemented through priority actions that have positive features, but also some deficiencies.

One positive feature is that the actions cover all levels of education and include a range of high-stakes policy areas that are important for the prevention of exclusion, such as adult education, integration of minorities and students from residential institutions, and inclusive education: this relates to a total of eight policy areas of intervention (Figure 16).

Figure 16. Availability of policy actions in support of student access, retention and graduation, by level of education and policy area (2014–2020)

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Sources: Visualisation on the basis of information provided in the EDS 2014–2020 (Education 2020): Government Decision No. 944 of 14 November 2014, and the Strategy for the Development of Technical Vocational Education 2013–2020: Government Decision No. 97 of 1 February 2013.

However, Figure 18 also shows that most actions are limited to the promotion of (first-time) access to education and training opportunities, although the data and analysis so far suggest that the exclusion challenge is also driven by difficulties in retaining students and in seeing them through to successful graduation. 44

Although there are actions in place to facilitate access in almost all policy areas, there are considerably fewer interventions to support students once they are in education and training. Such interventions are limited to students in inclusive education and students from ethnic minority groups. Actions in support of successful graduation are even rarer, and take place only in higher education (Figure 18).

The policy measures promoting labour market participation are designed for the general population irrespective of age, which limits their outreach among unemployed and inactive young people.

If young people in Moldova are most affected by labour market exclusion, it might be expected that a sizeable share of employment-related measures would be devoted to them. Unfortunately, apart from one nascent programme with a focus specifically on young people[85] Start for Young People, described above.
, all of the other (numerous) measures targeting job-seekers and promoting labour market participation are designed for the general population, irrespective of age.

Young people account for a relatively modest share of the beneficiaries of these programmes[86] NRF B.1.7 and also Government Decision No. 973 of 2018 on the approval of the Start for Young People programme (http://www.legis.md/cautare/rezultate/109155).
, which is not surprising. When it comes to labour market support and ALMMs, the needs and situation of young people are known to require a more customised, higher-intensity approach that may include a stronger focus on counselling and monitoring, the creation of commitment and motivation to persevere and look for a job, and incentives for employers to hire young and less-experienced job-seekers (Tosun et al., 2017).

In 2018 the ETF had already noted the need for more 'youth-friendly' services in support of youth employment in Moldova (ETF, 2018). However, at the time of this assessment such services were still largely absent, except for the few good-practice examples of donor-supported actions for career guidance in schools. This gap continues to impede the effectiveness of policy measures that promote the labour market participation of the youth population. Part of the problem is the lack of mechanisms to identify and evaluate successful past projects and initiatives for youth employment with a view to systematising, disseminating and using the experience in the design of new policies.

The official policies to tackle the labour market exclusion of young people in Moldova do not seem to take into consideration the diversity of this population segment and do not target the main determinants of exclusion. This limits their credibility and effectiveness.

As a group, young people in Moldova who are looking for employment or who are economically inactive are rather diverse in terms of their socioeconomic contexts, expectations and reasons for unemployment or inactivity. For instance, a considerable share (39.5%) of young people under 25 who were neither employed nor looking for a job in 2018 had family responsibilities that prevented them from participating in the labour market. Close to 10% had a special status that granted them a social benefit (thus disincentivising them to work), and another 10% did not want to work or preferred not to give a reason for their inactivity (Figure 17).

Figure 17. Inactive population aged 15–24 by main reason for not working, 2018 (%)

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Source: Calculations based on data from the database of the National Bureau of Statistics.

Behind this diversity of explanations there is also a diversity of potential beneficiaries – such as school leavers, young people with disabilities, rural/poor youth, (single) mothers with small children, and job-seekers without qualifications – whose needs may differ and call for diverse support solutions. For example, young mothers may require a package of measures that include flexible hours for training, access to day-care services for their children, and the willingness of employers to adapt their working conditions (e.g. by allowing for flexible working hours). Young people who do not want to work may need solutions with a strong element of proactive outreach and incentive-creation, while those who are considering emigrating or who have already left the country may need stand-by access to reintegration support (including training and recognition of qualifications) as a stimulus in case they return.

Unlike the multitude of largely uncoordinated donor-supported projects, the official policies against labour market exclusion in Moldova are rather generic and do not yet seem to take this diversity into consideration, for instance by prioritising the more prominent determinants of youth exclusion, such as place of residence (the majority of young people live in rural areas), level of education and gender.

The state bodies and training providers in charge of implementing policies to support youth participation in employment and education are plagued by shortages of capacity and financial resources.

The national report describes how over the past few years, policy measures and donor-driven initiatives to support labour market participation have led to the creation or reshuffling of a number of state bodies and subordinate institutions and the adoption of an array of new regulations[87] See, for example, NRF A.2.4.
. In 2018 alone, Moldova adopted 12 new laws, government decisions, or regulations concerning VET, more than half of which focused on the facilitation of employment through vocational training and the recognition of professional qualifications.

In parallel, the authorities embarked on a wide-reaching public administration reform[88] For more official information, see https://cancelaria.gov.md/en/apc/public-administration-reform
that reduced the number of line ministries from 16 to 9 and the number of staff in the civil service by over 40%[89] NRF A.1.1.
. The measure is expected to lead to higher wages, but also to more responsibilities for fewer people. At the time of this assessment, the next step was a reduction of staff in subordinate institutions, some of which, such as the National Employment Agency, the Labour Market Observatory and the Centre for Vocational Education and Training, play a central role in the implementation of the policies described in this section.

The combined effect of these changes – reduction of staff, increase of workload and responsibility, and a changing regulatory environment – are a potential source of risk, as many of these institutions are already plagued by capacity and resources shortages and are struggling to deliver to expectations as it is[90] NRF C.3.2.
. For example, the national report quotes a 2017 ILO assessment establishing that the National Employment Agency has a lack of capacity to implement all measures to support those who are unemployed[91] NRF C.3.2.
, while the public VET providers lack the financial resources and staff competences to comply with their obligations to ensure equal opportunities for all[92] NRF C.2.3
.

From an HCD perspective, this last observation is particularly concerning. Part of the problem is the overstaffing in the education and training providers, where the number of professional staff has remained constant despite sharply declining enrolments. As a consequence, most of the financial resources are absorbed by wage expenses[93] NRF A.2.2.
, leaving little room for anything else, such as investment in professional development for teachers or the creation of better learning conditions.

Shortages of capacity and staff also hinder the work of a range of other institutions that are involved in promoting participation in education, training and the labour market, including the centres of excellence, the methodological centre and the Labour Market Observatory.

Moldova has put in place a number of bodies to coordinate activities and cooperation between employers, education and training (VET) providers and the state bodies responsible for labour market and HCD policies. These include representatives of the social partners, such as employers' organisations and trade unions, the newly formed sector skills councils (there were six at the time of this assessment), the Organisation for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Development (ODIMM), business associations, the National Employment Agency, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Council of Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) Students, and line ministries. The authorities had already created the National Coordination Council (Committee) for TVET in 2014 in order to foster stronger synergies between all these players, TVET, the labour market and the national economy.

Despite these arrangements, the national report notes that there is a considerable deficit in the involvement of employers in VET, partially because the National Coordination Council does not have sufficient capacity to facilitate stakeholder involvement, but also because the sector skills councils are too new[94] NRF E.2.1.
. An even more challenging problem is that beyond these bodies that are now in place, there is no formal mechanism and process for dialogue, cooperation and incentive provision at the lower, more technical level of interaction between the world of work and VET providers. This is a problem because it is at this level that decisions are taken and opportunities are forged when it comes to WBL, internship opportunities and locally owned partnerships between providers and local businesses.