Are skills and jobs the missing link in climate strategies?

How 25 countries are integrating skills, employment, and education into the low‑carbon transition, but there are gaps that still threaten a fair and inclusive shift.

28 Jan 2026

The low‑carbon transition is reshaping economies across the EU neighbourhood and Central Asia. As energy systems shift, industries are adapting, and communities are experiencing profound changes in work. The European Training Foundation’s report Empowering the Fair Transition in EU Neighbourhood and Central Asia examines whether climate strategies are keeping pace with this human dimension.

Its analysis covers 25 countries, assessed against a five‑tier framework from “below baseline” to “good,” using ten criteria that include policy coordination, social dialogue, skills needed, education programmes, financing, and inclusivity.

The results are sobering: most countries fall into the baseline or minimum categories. Employment, education, and skills are mentioned in climate strategies, but rarely embedded in a cohesive or systematic way. The report consequently comes with a warning: this fragmented approach risks leaving workers and communities unprepared for the transition.

The context of the transition

Under the Paris Agreement, countries submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), outlining their climate action plans. These are revised every five years, with the next round (NDC 3.0) due in 2025. Biennial Transparency Reports, submitted every two years, will track progress.

The ETF situates its analysis within this cycle. While NDCs have expanded in ambition, they continue to emphasise technological and infrastructural measures. Human capital dimensions remain peripheral. This omission presents a strategic risk: skills shortages and mismatches can delay progress toward NDC targets.

Fragmented integration of human capital

The ETF’s review shows that climate mitigation and adaptation plans consistently prioritise sectors such as energy, buildings, transport, and agriculture. Yet references to human capital are scattered.

Education and training are often linked to awareness raising or institutional capacity building, rather than workforce development. Financing plans are missing. Coordination with ministries of labour, education, and social affairs is seldom formalised.

This fragmented approach creates risks. Without targeted policies, workers in carbon‑intensive industries may face displacement without pathways to reskilling. Vulnerable groups may be excluded from opportunities in the green economy.

Findings across 25 countries

The ETF identifies recurring patterns:

Climate mitigation and adaptation plans vary in ambition but consistently prioritise renewable energy and waste management

Human capital appears in most NDCs, but fragmented across strategies, not always linked to an action plan, and not always linked to a dedicated budgets

Countries outside EU accession processes are less likely to include robust human capital measures

Integration of human capital is diverse and varies depending on sectors and need

Coordination with relevant stakeholders is not commonly integrated into NDC formulation.

Financing for climate‑relevant education and training is largely absent

Country examples

Yet alongside these challenges, there are encouraging signs of progress. Across the EU Neighbourhood and Central Asia, countries are beginning to embed education, training, and employment measures into their transition plans.

Institutional roles: Serbia, Georgia, Algeria, and Morocco are assigning clear responsibilities to ministries of labour, education, and social affairs in NDC design and implementation. This marks a shift from ad‑hoc consultation to structured institutional involvement.

Financing gaps addressed: Serbia, Kosovo, and Moldova are assessing the cost of training and skills measures, and using these plans to approach development finance institutions. This is a proactive step toward sustainable funding.

Training for vulnerable groups: Morocco, Tunisia, Georgia, Tajikistan, North Macedonia, and Moldova are preparing targeted programmes for disadvantaged groups, including youth and women, ensuring inclusivity in the green transition.

Social dialogue mechanisms: Georgia and Algeria are foreseeing dedicated social dialogue structures, embedding consultation with social partners and civil society into climate planning.

Reskilling in declining sectors: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Montenegro are beginning to design retraining pathways for workers in coal and fossil fuel industries. In Pljevlja, for example, employment is tied to the coal value chain, and documenting worker perspectives is helping shape reskilling strategies to prevent economic decline as coal is phased out.

Forward‑looking labour intelligence: North Macedonia has modelled green job creation under enhanced mitigation scenarios, offering policymakers a roadmap to align training systems with sectoral demand.

Education reforms: Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt have updated curricula to integrate sustainability and climate change, preparing future generations with green skills.

Regional cooperation: Türkiye, Georgia, and Azerbaijan are leveraging EU accession processes and Energy Community frameworks to align climate and skills agendas with European standards.

Together, these examples show that pockets of innovation and leadership exist and need to be supported.

Employment impacts

The ETF finds the transition will generate net employment gains, especially in renewable energy, construction, and circular economy sectors. These areas could create millions of new jobs, offering opportunities for young people and vulnerable groups if training systems are in place.

9 Policy pointers from the ETF

The report sets out clear directions for governments:

Develop cross‑sectoral synergies to strengthen climate mitigation and adaptation while allowing flexibility for different economic contexts.

Embed human capital measures directly into climate strategies, not just awareness campaigns

Provide clearer international guidance and regional coordination on education, training, and labour

Establish labour market analysis systems like job observatories or sector skills councils, especially in energy

Involve ministries of labour, education, and social affairs in NDC design and implementation

Link education and training offers with sector‑specific skill needs

Engage vulnerable and underrepresented groups through concrete commitments

Create costed financing plans for training and skills

Use development finance institutions to bridge funding gaps

Looking ahead to NDC 3.0

The next phase of climate planning is already underway, with many countries yet to submit their updated NDCs. Biennial Transparency Reports will provide the mechanism to track progress.

For ETF partner countries, the strategic opportunity lies in making climate strategies bankable. Plans that integrate employment, skills, and education measures are effective and more credible to international partners and finance institutions. This matters because all partner countries expect international support for their climate action.

Most are still at an early stage of embedding human capital measures, but the roadmap is clear: build labour market intelligence, secure financing, embed ministries into planning, and engage vulnerable groups.

A fair transition must reduce emissions while also shaping economies that enable workers, students, and communities to adapt to change. Current strategies remain fragmented, but NDC 3.0 offers the chance to embed education, training, and employment as core components of climate commitments.

To explore the full analysis and recommendations, read the ETF report Empowering the Fair Transition in EU Neighbourhood and Central Asia.