Navigating the future: how the colours of the economy shape the future of work and skills

Although time travel isn't yet a reality, key trends such as technological advancements, demographic changes, and societal values are rapidly transforming industries and reshaping the global economy. At October's "WOW – Unveiling the Colours of the Economy" event, jointly organised by the European Training Foundation (ETF) and the International Training Centre of the International Labour Organisation (ITCILO), researchers, experts, and thought leaders from around the globe were transported to the year 2050 through a creative exercise in strategic futures planning. 

Using colour as a lens to systemically explore key industrial sectors, participants imagined diverse futures for societies, education, and the world of work. As well as envisioning a range of possible futures, it was an opportunity to explore how to shape education and skills today to meet the needs of tomorrow. 

This event, the third in the ETF’s “Navigating the Future” series, brought together partners from the European Commission, the ETF’s Skills Lab Network of Experts, ITCILO, and strategic foresight experts to experience first-hand the power of futures scenario planning.  With 30 years of experience in human capital development, skills anticipation, and policy advice in EU neighbouring countries, the ETF believes that co-creation is now more essential than ever for developing transformative, resilient strategies to tackle evolving educational and labour market challenges. 

Petra Pierklova from the European Commission’s Unit “Future of Work, Youth Employment” agreed that the rapid changes taking place in the workplace were driven by digitalisation, demographic shifts, and the increasing integration of artificial intelligence (AI). While AI has the potential to create new jobs in all sectors, it also risks exacerbating inequalities, particularly for women and low-skilled workers who, globally, are more vulnerable to job displacement. Strong social dialogue, forward-thinking policies, and international cooperation are crucial to guide this transformation.  Central to this are upskilling and reskilling programmes, which, she noted, are “no longer optional, but essential.”   

Carsten Beck, a foresight expert from the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, stressed the need for inclusive, human-centred future scenario planning that capture the voices of all stakeholders. He emphasised that integrating foresight into education is key to helping young people navigate uncertain futures. “If you can’t imagine a different future, how can you prepare for it?” Beck asked, calling for futures literacy to be taught alongside social media, financial, and digital literacy. 

Fast-forward to 2050 

Nik Baerten, a strategic foresight expert and founder of Pantopicon guiding the participants in the foresight activity, emphasised that futures literacy is a powerful tool for reframing challenges and driving change. When discussing the future of work, he stressed the importance of asking not “if” a particular future will happen, but rather, “what if it does?”  Underscoring that futures planning always involves preparing for multiple possible outcomes rather than just a single scenario, he continued, “If we project ourselves 20, 30 years ahead, what are the things we might want to start preparing for now?” 

The exercise was a dynamic and imaginative process. Participants were divided into groups representing the seven colours of the economy and tasked with exploring future scenarios for each. They examined how life and work might evolve in these future worlds, focusing on jobs, educational needs, and economic systems.  

After visiting other groups’ future scenarios, participants identified the factors that could either accelerate or hinder the realisation of their futures, being sure to consider the interconnections and dynamics between each of the colour economies.  The insights were then transposed into five areas: labour market evolution, upskilling and reskilling, diversity and inclusion, technological advancements, and workplace adaptation—ensuring participants applied a comprehensive, multi-stakeholder approach to envisioning and preparing for the future. 

Looking into the future of the colours of the economy 

In the green economy, participants were transported to a future world that has managed to halt ecosystem decline and start to regenerate what damage has been done.  It is a circular economy, where financial systems prioritise the ecosystem and human health, and reusing and recycling are standard industrial practices.  Ideas from participants focused on equal access to green skills education, creating sustainable and shared workspaces, and prioritising investment into innovative and ever-more sustainable technologies.  Decentralising decision-making to balance local needs with global priorities was an important pathway to achieving decent and inclusive employment opportunities for all.  

The white economy is a world centered on fostering a healthy and resilient society.  In this economy, investments in research and development focus on preventative healthcare and promoting active, healthy longevity. The team envisioned the incorporation of empathy education programmes across all curricula to foster inter-generational solidarity and care. Since AI is seen as a driving force for innovation in personal, community, and public health, targeted training programs would be made available for all healthcare professionals. Re-skilling initiatives would also support the development of 'wellbeing' professionals, ensuring holistic, high-tech healthcare is accessible to everyone. These specialists would work to improve citizens' quality of life, helping them fully embrace the benefits of this economy’s four-day workweek! 

In the gold economy technology is now a transversal force, and every facet of life is touched by amazing technological advancements that enhance human capabilities.  To ensure that all citizens can thrive in this data-driven world, proposals included establishing finance and IT education as a basic human right. Recognising the importance of uniquely human skills, curricula would also prioritise soft skills like critical thinking and teamwork. While the traditional 'workplace' has evolved, fostering decent working conditions that emphasise connectivity and collaboration is now more vital than ever. 

In the blue economy, citizens depend on the water for both their well-being and their livelihoods. Sustainable fishing practices and renewable energy are now the norm, while AI and drones gather data to assess the costs and benefits of various blue economy activities. Innovations in design and architecture have led to the creation of floating neighbourhoods that adapt to changing water levels. Educational programmes focused on ocean literacy, water and waste management, and digital skills are deemed essential for all. By combining traditional knowledge with new technologies, these programmes can address issues of diversity and inclusion. Additionally, a micro-credentials ‘passport’ would support an agile workforce, equipped to meet evolving challenges. 

In the orange economy, creativity is the driving force behind progress and prosperity, even in addressing societal challenges like the climate crisis. Arts, crafts, entertainment, gaming, fashion, design, and architecture have become central to this economy, influencing every aspect of daily life. A key focus is on developing curricula that nurture individual creativity. Ensuring labour rights for creative professionals is seen as essential to making this economy more appealing to young people. AI is envisioned as a tool to support personalised, learner-led education programmes, but it is crucial to ensure that technology does not ‘homogenize’ the creative process and instead remains a catalyst for innovation. 

The silver economy demonstrates how a healthy aging population can be a powerful driver of prosperity, contributing much more than just financial value. The knowledge, skills, and experience of older generations play a vital role in enhancing both individual and collective well-being. To fully harness this potential, ideas included implementing dynamic policies to abolish mandatory retirement, allowing older individuals to be considered a valuable part of the workforce. Anti-age discrimination initiatives combined with reskilling programmes focused on soft skills, empathy, and solidarity could create opportunities for "silver entrepreneurs" and silver gig economy workers. Additionally, fostering intergenerational skills transfer through mutual learning, mentoring and the creation of old-age apprenticeships would help maintain a dynamic and diverse workforce. 

The yellow economy offers vast opportunities for technological innovations, clean energy, and entrepreneurship. From sprawling solar panel fields to adventurous desert tourism, the deserts have become hubs for advanced technologies that thrive in no other environment. Recognising the need for innovation in such a challenging landscape, members of the yellow economy emphasised the importance of developing entrepreneurial skills. Education in technology should integrate traditional expertise and local knowledge, particularly recognising the contributions of Indigenous populations. This approach helps foster inclusive and diverse education programmes. Additionally, human-centric AI plays a crucial role in driving innovation while protecting the rights and well-being of those living and working in such extreme environments. 

Back to 2024 

The true strength of strategic foresight lies in its ability to shape the present by anticipating future scenarios. By understanding the potential impact of these futures, we can take proactive steps today to be better prepared. In the final stage of the foresight exercise, participants were brought back from the future and tasked with identifying actionable steps that could be developed within the framework of an interconnected, ‘rainbow’ economy. 

First, participants focused on structuring multi-stakeholder capacity-building concepts that could be implemented today.  These included the development of a universally-recognised skills passport, a global AI platform for a personalised learning and employment experience, and a platform to connect labour market information at both a local and international level. 

Second, participants were asked to develop key research questions that could help guide future social dialogue and policy-making. Some of the most prominent questions included, “How can we consult all stakeholders before policies, curricula and training programmes are developed?”, “Is education a driver in shifting to a global stakeholder economy?”, “How can we ensure labour rights in the new, flexible working environment?” and “How can we adapt lifelong learning to the changes in the labour market?”. 

The rainbow of change 

The insights and ideas shared at the "WOW – Unveiling the Colours of the Economy" event provide a powerful reminder that the future of education and work will be shaped by the decisions and strategies implemented today.  

Understanding that the “…intersection of the different colours is where the future of sustainability lies…” this rainbow view of economies provides new insights, perspectives, and visions of the future that can help “integrate and streamline the colour thinking of global labour market systems.”  

The imaginative futures envisioned by the ETF and its partners highlight the importance of futures literacy, not just as an academic exercise but as a practical tool for preparing today’s workforce for tomorrow's challenges.   

Thanking everyone for their creativity and imagination throughout each phase of the process, Baerten reminded participants that foresight is not about predicting the future but about preparing for its many possibilities.  As he so aptly put it, “Keep calm, future eyes on.”