From skills anticipation to skills action: A policy agenda for the EU’s neighbouring countries
Across the EU’s neighbouring regions, governments face a common challenge: ensuring that skills systems are agile and responsive enough to meet the evolving demands of labour markets in the context of digitalisation, the green transition, and wider structural changes. A new publication by the European Training Foundation (ETF), From Skills Anticipation to Skills Action, brings fresh evidence to this pressing issue - drawing on research conducted across its partner countries in the Western Balkans and Türkiye, Eastern Europe and the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean.
The publication, produced in collaboration with our ETF Skills Lab Network of Experts, brings together six original studies selected through a joint research call. It covers different contexts -from small farms in Serbia to the steel industry in Türkiye - but with a shared objective: to better understand how skills systems can go beyond identifying needs, to actually delivering the right skills at the right time.
Rather than simply tracking global trends, the publication examines how different national contexts influence countries’ ability to act on emerging skills needs. In doing so, it sheds light on how education and training systems are shaped by broader institutional settings, and what options are available to accelerate progress.
Understanding what’s changing
The opening chapter sets out a clear framework for interpreting changes in the demand for skills. It draws on international research and the ETF’s own analysis to unpack the drivers of transformation: automation, AI, environmental sustainability, global value chains, and shifting demographics.
A key insight is that the pace and impact of these changes vary significantly by country. While tools like the European Skills and Jobs Survey (ESJS) show that technology is reshaping work across the EU, its effects are more incremental in ETF partner countries, where the uptake of digital tools remains relatively limited, and the impact on jobs is more about building on existing roles rather than replacing them.
The green transition presents another layer of complexity. In the EU, the Green Deal has mobilised significant resources and regulatory momentum. In the EU’s neighbouring countries, however, institutional capacity, labour market structures, and climate change shape what the transition looks like in practical terms and what skills are needed to support it.
A recurrent theme running throughout the publication, is that change is often failing to take place at sufficient scale in the countries, such that there is a risk of falling behind some of the major economies. One factor is a latent skills gap related to knowledge about new technologies and how they might transform product ranges and production processes in almost any sector.
Case studies
Each of the six case studies offers practical insights:
- In Serbia, the adoption of digitalisation among small farms is hindered by cost, low digital literacy, and weak support services. Policy solutions must link technology investment with education, training, and business advisory services.
- In Lebanon and Tunisia, green job growth is constrained by skill gaps, particularly at technician and management levels. There is a need for more targeted vocational training, better alignment between curricula and labour market needs, and stronger leadership in skills governance.
- In Albania, Egypt, and Tunisia, the energy sector is both a challenge and an opportunity. With rising demand for renewable energy and energy efficiency, the study points to the importance of regional skills hubs, cross-border training initiatives, and employer-led curriculum design.
- In Morocco and Serbia, a study on graduate mismatch shows that simply increasing access to higher education is not enough. Skills alignment, quality assurance, and lifelong learning pathways are essential to improving outcomes for graduates.
- In Türkiye, researchers explore how successful models from Poland and Wales—such as Sectoral Human Capital Studies and the European Steel Skills Agenda—can be adapted to support the steel industry through sector-specific alliances and more responsive training systems.
- In Albania, Kosovo, and North Macedonia, the growth of youth digital-social entrepreneurship offers a promising avenue for inclusion and innovation. But support ecosystems are fragmented, and there is a lack of targeted training aligned with both digital skills and social impact goals.
From forecasting to action
A core message throughout the publication is that skills anticipation is only the starting point. The real challenge lies in building the institutional mechanisms to act on this intelligence. This means engaging employers, aligning education systems with sectoral needs, and making smarter use of data to shape investment decisions.
There is also a warning: some countries risk falling into a low-skills trap, where limited innovation reduces the demand for new skills, which in turn weakens incentives for reform. Breaking out of this cycle requires coordinated policy efforts that connect industrial development with education and labour market strategies.
A platform for future action
From Skills Anticipation to Skills Action is more than a research compendium. It is a call to rethink how skills systems are governed and resourced in times of rapid transition. For policymakers in ETF partner countries (and for their counterparts in the EU), the publication offers a grounded, comparative view of how to design skills policies that are both adaptive and inclusive.
The ETF’s work highlights that while countries differ, their policy choices are increasingly interlinked. As labour markets become more integrated and transitions more urgent, the ability to act on skills intelligence may well define the region’s future competitiveness and resilience.
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.
Did you like this article? If you would like to be notified when new content like this is published, subscribe to receive our email alerts.