The national report provides ample evidence of positive changes on the input side of policies promoting participation in human capital development through VET. Spending on the study grants authorised by the state order has been on the rise for some years now, driven by an increase of over 10% since 2015 in the number of grants for working professions (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Total number of state grants allocated to VET courses in working professions between 2017 and 2020

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Source: Data provided by regional authorities as quoted in the national report of Kazakhstan, 2020: Section C.1.1.

In terms of absolute numbers, the 'VET for free' initiative paid the tuition expenses of a total of 94 810 VET students in 2018. Overall, the share of students in VET whose tuition is paid through the state order has grown continuously since 2014. Table 4 shows enrolments for the 2017/2018 school year.

Table 4. Enrolment in VET funded by the state and by VET students, by number and share of total enrolment (2017/2018)

Source: (Statistics Committee, 2018).

The Serpin 2050 programme has also helped to cover the training costs of almost 17 000 beneficiaries, of whom almost a quarter (23.8%) were trained in the 22 colleges belonging to the public VET system. In 2018, the education authorities also secured land for the construction of 134 new dormitories in the vicinity of VET providers with the aim of expanding capacity in the network of dormitories to a total of 75 000 places by 2022[32] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: C.1.3.
.

The evidence of policy-related impact on participation in human capital development through VET is rather scarce and, where available, leaves room for interpretation. For example, the national report suggests that both the 'VET for free' initiative and the Serpin 2050 programme have had a positive impact on a range of VET participation-related challenges by boosting enrolment and graduation among specific groups. Such groups include students in need of special educational support, whose enrolment rates grew by 10.4% since the introduction of the initiative; graduates at risk of precarious employment, whose number went down by 13.2% in the same period; and the share of unemployed young people, which dropped by almost 12% over the three years up to 2018[33] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: B.1.5; C.1.2; C.1.3.
. However, it is not clear how and to what extent the two initiatives have contributed to these positive developments, and whether other factors may have played a role as well.

This question is important because the same sources of evidence suggest that, in some instances, the very same policy responses have not been as effective as anticipated. One such instance is the non-participation in VET of a substantial number of students. According to the national report, between 20 000 and 30 000 young people do not continue their education and training after grades 9 and 11 every year despite the free opportunities offered to them. The national report indicates that this is a reason why some 16 000 of them (or 9% of the youth population in the relevant age group) become NEETs. In addition, a recent rating of VET colleges carried out by Kasipkor[34] Kasipkor is a publicly owned holding company set up to modernise VET and develop new educational programmes.
showed that around 12% of students drop out even before graduating from their VET programme[35] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: C.1.2 and C.2.1.
.

Another example of a policy setback is the underutilisation of study opportunities for priority professions in the labour market (working professions). In 2018, for example, only a quarter of VET graduates entered these professions[36] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: C.1.1.
. Among the reasons for this is that students and their families were not informed about the study opportunities or that they were in professional areas considered unattractive[37] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: C.1.1.
. Another reason is that VET study choices were driven by personal and family expectations and convictions, and not by information on labour market prospects.

The national report suggests that, in many cases, the aspirations of families and students are often catered for by private VET providers (which at the time of this assessment accounted for 41.6% of all VET providers) – their study programmes are shaped by demand from students and profit considerations, and not by labour market needs. This contributes to a considerable oversupply of graduates in fields for which there is no demand[38] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: C.3.2.
. ETF calculations based on data provided in the national report show that, in 2017–2018, almost a quarter of VET students (23.7%) were enrolled in VET programmes for which there was little or no demand, while programmes providing skills in high demand enrolled less than a fifth (19.2%) of the VET population[39] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: A.2.3 and C.3.1.
.

A common phenomenon and a challenge in many countries is the fact that the educational choices of students may not always be aligned with the needs of labour markets (Cedefop, 1998). In Kazakhstan, however, the problem is exacerbated by shortcomings in the planning and provision of opportunities for participation in VET and specifically in courses that are important to employers. These shortcomings concern in particular the planning of VET provider capacity and the allocation of state grants to VET. Decisions appear to be driven more by the funding needs of regions and their public VET providers, and less by actual student demand for VET or the skills needs of regional economies.

One aspect of the problem is that the majority of public VET schools still depend on the state order for most of their funding needs[40] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: E.5.1.
and thus have an interest in retaining their historic enrolment capacity. However, this also leads to considerable misalignment between demand for places in VET and their supply. In 2018, for example, there was a shortage of places in 7 out of the 16 regions in Kazakhstan, the biggest deficits being in Almaty (6 176 places) and Shymkent (3 981 places). At the same time, there was a considerable surplus in other regions, in some cases a surplus of up to 5 989 places (Pavlodar) (Figure 8). The mismatch is particularly pronounced in rural areas, where VET providers operate at only 40% of their enrolment capacity and most of the vacant places are for VET programmes for which there is no student demand.

Figure 8. Shortages and surpluses of places in VET colleges in Kazakhstan, by region (2018)

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Source: Ministry of Education and Science as quoted in the national report of Kazakhstan, 2020: Section C.1.1.

Another aspect of the same challenge is that the mechanism of planning and distributing the state order (state grants) fails to take into consideration skills needs at local level, although it is the main channel of public funding for VET at that level[41] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: Summary of Section C.
. On the one hand, Kazakhstan coordinates policy efforts well across various levels of governance (ETF, 2019). On the other hand, the national report notes that, despite recent improvements[42] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: A.2.4.
, the methodology used to allocate state grants still suffers from shortcomings. These shortcomings prevent it from capturing important details about regional labour market demand and the skills needs of SMEs at regional level.

Taken together with the tendency to perpetuate mismatch in supply and demand in terms of study places, these shortcomings are contributing to a problematic situation in which the distribution and funding of study opportunities in VET apparently depend on formal and informal criteria such as funding needs and historic budget allocations that are not as reliable as they should be, given the declared importance of the VET sector for human capital development.

This problem may have various consequences for the effective and efficient use of VET resources and opportunities. One of these consequences appears to be the wide variation in the amount of funding provided through the state order for VET between regions in terms of average expenditure per student. A difference of almost 60% exists between the region with the lowest (Almaty) and the region with the highest (Akmola) levels of expenditure per student; the levels do not seem to depend on the number of students in the particular region (Figure 9). Nor do the allocated resources seem to depend on the number of providers per region (Figure 10). The Turkestan region, for example, has the highest number of providers, but only the sixth-highest level of funding, while the regions of North Kazakhstan, Mangistau and Atyrau have a comparable number of providers and students, but very different amounts of public resources per provider and student.

Figure 9. Number of students and public spending on state grants in VET per student and VET provider, by region (2018)

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Source: Calculations based on data provided by the Ministry of Education and Science as quoted in the national report of Kazakhstan, 2020: E.5.1.

Figure 10. Number of providers and total public spending on VET, by region (2018)

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Source: Calculations based on data provided by the Ministry of Education and Science as quoted in the national report of Kazakhstan, 2020: E.5.1.

In addition to the risk of inadequate grant allocations, a final point of concern is that the state order system may be disadvantaging students from weaker socio-economic backgrounds. In Kazakhstan, students in this group are the most likely to struggle academically (OECD, 2018), but they are also the ones who are most likely to opt for VET. At the same time, the sole criterion for admission to state-funded places in VET is a successful performance in admission exams, which requires academic knowledge gained from general education. According to the national report, the socio-economic status of VET candidates is currently not taken into consideration[43] See summary section, national report of Kazakhstan, 2020: C.3.
.

If individuals are well informed and can reflect on what they will learn and how it links to their interests, capacities and aspirations, investment in education and training is likely to be considerably more effective (Watts, 2009). According to cross-country policy research, this is one of the main goals and contributions of career guidance in VET in most OECD countries, provided that attention is paid not only to the needs of employers, but also to the demands and expectations of students, who usually have a clearer idea of their skills and preferences (OECD, 2010).

In Kazakhstan, there are a number of institutions involved in career guidance in VET. However, the national report notes that coordination among them is weak as there is no unified career guidance strategy and no entity in charge of coordination. Also, career guidance does not start early enough. An even bigger problem is the one-sidedness of its focus and recommendations. The career guidance system draws on information about opportunities and needs in the labour market, but does not take into consideration the interests, aptitudes and convictions of students. Nor does it ensure that parents and students have adequate updates regarding that information. As a result, there seems to be a contradiction between student choices and state policy that promotes participation in VET.

Research was recently conducted on data obtained from the vocational guidance tests of 1 474 recent graduates and jobseekers carried out by one of the major career guidance portals in Kazakhstan[44] See Bagdar.kz at http://proftecs.com/.
. The results show that their study choices are widely misaligned not only with labour market needs (as discussed earlier in this section), but also with their skills and aptitudes as students (Zukibaeva & Barabanova, forthcoming) (Figure 11).

Figure 11. Study choices and vocational guidance test results – comparison by choice of subject and test outcome (2019)

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Source: (Zukibaeva & Barabanova, forthcoming).

The problem of inefficiency in relation to student choices is reinforced even further by the growing significance of commercial private providers; by a lack of policy focus on factors that influence the largely unfavourable perceptions that students and their families have about the VET professions that are in high demand in the labour market; and by a lack of adequate career information for students and their families.

To address the low quality of VET in the country, Kazakhstan is planning to implement a gradual change in the methods of instruction in VET to make them more student-centred and competence-based[46] See, for instance, national report of Kazakhstan, 2020: D.1.1 and D.3.1.
. This is in line with international experience, which suggests that the quality of learning and the learning outcomes of students can improve with the help of individualised teaching (Thomas, 1992).

One aspect of that effort in Kazakhstan is a commitment to active teaching methods, which will allow teachers to differentiate students by level of development and achievement and adapt their work accordingly. Another aspect is the wider use of ICT, which the Kazakh authorities see as the main instrument in the transition to individualised teaching. They intend to invest in this area by equipping 90% of all schools, including vocational schools, with broadband access by 2020. The national report also describes the implementation of plans for the gradual introduction of content and language integrated learning (CLIL), where students learn a subject and a foreign language (e.g. English) at the same time. Finally, some of the policy measures aim at creating professional conditions that stimulate the professional development of teachers and trainers in VET.

To monitor the impact of these changes, inform stakeholders about reform progress and gather information for policy planning purposes, the national and regional education authorities rely on a National Quality Assessment System in Education (Национальная система оценки качества образования – НСОКО). At the time of this assessment, this system was not subject to reform. To fulfil its monitoring functions, it relies on school inspections and on the licensing, accreditation and rating of VET providers. Some colleges are also introducing a new quality management system on a pilot basis, but this seems to be more of an administrative improvement.

The policy measures designed to boost the labour market relevance of VET seem to be more diversified than those targeting the effectiveness of teaching and learning in VET schools. The measures include the independent certification of VET graduates by professionals employed in the graduate's respective field; the use of certification results by VET colleges when improving their learning content; the modularisation of programmes and their re-development with employers so that they become competence-based and more flexible; the forecasting of skills needs based on the ILO/SKOLKOVO Skills Technology Foresight approach, the results of which are presented in the form of an Atlas of New Professions that is intended to inform VET career guidance activities; the provision of entrepreneurship learning; the promotion of various forms of work-based learning, such as internships and dual education; and the increasing of the autonomy of VET providers to change a certain part of the study content and the timetable for its teaching.

The latest round of PISA suggests that the performance gap between general and vocational schools has not diminished, and that the overall quality of learning outcomes continues to be considerably lower than desired and lower than the OECD average. Although most policies targeting the low quality in VET were already described in strategic documents back in 2011 (Table 5), their systematic, nationwide implementation appears to have commenced only in the past few years. It would be therefore inaccurate to judge their effectiveness only by the recent results in international assessments such as PISA and PIAAC. In addition, there is insufficient capacity to monitor implementation, as, at the time of this ETF assessment, the VET quality assurance system was not designed for that purpose. It was designed only to track a basic set of indicators concerning the routine operation of the VET system, such as students' grades and VET providers' compliance with rules and regulations.

Table 5. Policies for quality and relevance in VET, by focus and year of initiation

Source: ETF compilation based on information provided in the national report of Kazakhstan, 2020: A to E.

There is no conclusive evidence of the progress that has been made or the impact of most of the measures, for example those concerning student-centred instruction and active teaching (see the section on shortcomings). In terms of ICT, Kazakhstan has attached great importance to the use of digital technologies in education and VET. After equipping the majority of schools with computer hardware and software, multimedia equipment and interactive smart boards in 2010, the authorities have now expanded internet access to 98.8% of urban and 99.2% of rural schools (IAC, 2014). Progress has been more modest in the area of content and language integrated language learning (CLIL): in 2018, only 0.9% of teachers of professional subjects were providing instruction in English[47] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: D.1.1.
.

Evidence of the impact of policies that support the labour market relevance of VET is patchy as well. In areas where it was available at the time of this ETF assessment, it suggested that there is progress, but there was insufficient information to draw any conclusions about the impact.

In 2018, Kazakhstan increased the number of independent centres that certify graduates by 33. However, around the same time, the certification itself ceased to be obligatory. This is sure to have a negative impact on the effectiveness of this policy measure. Indeed, between 2017 and 2018, the share of graduates who underwent independent certification dropped by 9%, to 35% of all graduates[48] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: B.1.2.
.

Another area of substantial progress for which there is evidence of effectiveness is the modularisation of programmes. Between 2016 and 2018, the standard education plans of over 92% of all VET programmes were updated (246 plans). Since 2012, Kasipkor has developed a total of 74 new programmes covering 185 qualifications[49] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: A.1.1.
.

Finally, by 2018, some 486 colleges had introduced dual education, which accounts for 47% of the VET provider network[50] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: D.1.1.
. However, the choice of colleges was such that it covered only 19.8% of the VET student population[51] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: Annex 1, Indicator 17.
.

The Kazakh authorities have committed to a range of commendable actions to improve the effectiveness of teaching and learning in VET. However, the main instrument used for the monitoring of policy progress and impact – the quality assurance system – seems to have remained largely the same since before the inception of reforms in 2011. That system was designed primarily to ensure that the education sector at large was accountable to the responsible state bodies and that the compliance of education providers with norms and state standards was monitored.

This purpose is as important as ever, but is no longer sufficient given the current environment of change and aspirations for improvement, specifically in VET. As partially acknowledged also in the national report, it is not possible to monitor the impact of reform due to a number of missing elements. Specifically, the quality assurance system still focuses predominantly on school and higher education; there is no VET-specific expertise in the inspectorates that would allow them to track progress on the transition to novel forms of VET instruction; some of the quality assurance tools are either too expensive for VET colleges (accreditation) or they are not compulsory anymore (e.g. the professional certification of graduates); the focus on compliance is much stronger than the focus on the education and training performance of providers; and the area of internal quality assurance (ongoing assessment of student achievement) is neglected.

All policy measures supporting the labour market relevance of VET outlined in the national report rely on the regular, formalised involvement of employers to achieve the desired results. However, there is evidence that, despite being designed in line with international good practice, some of the more prominent measures, such as work-based learning and the modularisation of VET programmes, are not reaching their full potential due to weak links to the world of work.

Part of the problem is the lack of incentives – financial and non-financial – for employers to be involved in consultations around the design and delivery of VET programmes. This limits the choice and diversity of private sector partners involved in the process and in this way jeopardises the labour market relevance of the newly designed VET content. Another part of the challenge is the lack of places in enterprises for interns. Where places are available, companies are reluctant to slow down their business and production processes to accommodate the pedagogical and/or induction needs of prospective trainees coming from VET.

A cumulative side effect of this situation is that it also makes it difficult for SMEs to become involved in shaping VET content, although many of the employment opportunities for VET graduates are provided by these very SMEs.

Despite a considerable investment of time, financial and human resources in the improvement of quality and labour market relevance in VET, some of the most visible obstacles to progress seem to be related to infrastructure deficits and shortages in learning and teaching materials. A lack of textbooks and electronic resources hampers the wider use of ICT in VET, including the use of ICT for individualising instructional methods. Even if such resources are available, there may be no broadband access to the internet. A shortage of learning materials, in particular textbooks, is also impeding the implementation of integrated language learning and, according to focus group discussions carried out in the course of preparing the national report, also impeding entrepreneurship education.

These shortages reflect a long-standing pattern of spending on VET: spending has been on the rise for a number of years, albeit at the expense of declining capital investment in infrastructure and maintenance (Figure 14). It has also been at the expense of the creation of the material base required by most of the reforms that support quality and relevance, which are described in the national report.

Figure 14. Trends in spending on VET, total and capital expenditure (2004–2018)

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Source: Calculations based on data provided by the Statistics Committee of Kazakhstan (stat.gov.kz).

Information about activities in this first strand is still modest. There is also limited data that could help discuss the effectiveness of policies that support job holders in sustaining and upgrading their skills. One of the reasons for this limitation may be the relative scarcity of activities supporting this priority. Another is the fact that the priority itself does not seem to have been fully endorsed by its primary beneficiaries – the adults and their employers – which in turn puts at risk the effectiveness of current and future actions in this area. In 2017, households in Kazakhstan spent only 1.3% of their education budgets on adult education (Figure 17) (IAC, 2018). While the low level of private investment in some areas such as VET or student accommodation can be explained by an increase in public spending, this is not the case with adult education.

Figure 17. Household expenditure on education, by item and level of education, 2017

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Source: (IAC, 2018).

Employers in Kazakhstan also seem reluctant to follow the strategic aspirations of national authorities and provide opportunities for adult education and training to their staff. In 2017, which is the last year for which there is data, less than a third (28%) managed to do so. This is considerably lower than the OECD average (45%) and covered only 3.4% of all employees in the country.

According to information in the national report, adult education policies that support jobseekers and people with no qualifications have been rather effective. For instance, the Roadmap programme has engaged in significant outreach activity in recent years. Participation in adult education has grown more than threefold since 2014, to a total of 703 000 people in 2018, of whom 96% found a job after their training[57] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: B.1.5.
. The Enbek programme is just starting. So far, it has only assisted 9% of those who are officially unemployed, but graduation rates are high (93%)[58] National report of Kazakhstan, 2020: B.1.6.
. Enbek is also effective in terms of mobilising the potential of VET providers, which in 2018 catered for the adult education needs of 87% of all participants in the programme[59] Ibid.
.

The national report provides quantitative and qualitative evidence for most challenges and policy responses concerning VET and human capital development, and refers to internal and external sources of analysis. Against a backdrop of the wealth of information on the various challenges covered in the national report, the evidence base on adult education, and more broadly on lifelong learning, is limited. This gap complicates the tracking of progress following the implementation of actions in this strategic area and it also impedes the calibration of policies based on lessons learned.

This can be detrimental, particularly in areas in which Kazakhstan is still struggling to create opportunities for adult education, such as sustaining and upgrading the skills of job holders (Strand 1, as described in this assessment). The national report notes that the lack of evidence is part of a broader problem of a lack of tools for analysing and evaluating policy effectiveness concerning education and training reforms.

In the Programme for Education Development 2011–2020, the national authorities underline that lifelong learning depends on the extent to which employers can be involved in the co-financing of educational programmes and the creation of flexible schemes to encourage employees to participate in lifelong learning. The policy plans implied double responsibility for the creation of adult education opportunities – both employers and the state must take responsibility.

At the time the current strategy commenced in 2011, close to a third of all companies in the country felt that the support they received from the government for developing the skills of their workforce was inadequate. According to surveys and the national report, the situation had not changed much at the time of this assessment. Most companies acknowledge the potential benefits of up-to-date skills, but they also report the difficulties they have in allocating the financial resources necessary for the professional development of their staff (this is particularly true for SMEs). The current regulations also do not envisage any incentives for involvement, for instance in the form of tax breaks.

In many countries, informal and non-formal learning is a widespread form of adult learning, especially for those with few qualifications and/or low educational attainment. In Kazakhstan also, several institutions and civil society organisations provide non-formal training. The Law on Education also acknowledges the existence and potential of informal and non-formal learning. However, at the time of this assessment, there were no mechanisms in place to recognise and validate informal and non-formal learning. This is a missed opportunity to capitalise on the skills obtained in this way and to expand the coverage and impact of adult education as a policy priority.