According to data available at the time of this assessment, 65% of the population of working age in North Macedonia had at least a secondary education degree[28] Ibid.
. The national Torino Process report describes this as an achievement and explains that it has been possible due to the long-standing promotion of access and success in secondary education and VET, which the country has traditionally pursued as a measure against illiteracy and low educational attainment[29] NRF C.1.1.
.

Successful graduation and progression are still very much the focus of strategic planning for VET and education in general. The Education Strategy for 2018–2025 (MESRM, 2018) commits to the improvement of completion and success rates in VET and to better, smoother progression to higher levels of education and training, including better rates of retention in general education. The success of learners in terms of graduation and progression is also at the centre of the Action Plan, which complements the Education Strategy, and North Macedonia has had some remarkable success with that.

Probably the most important policy decision along these lines was to make secondary education and VET compulsory in 2008. Statements in the national report suggest that it has helped to boost educational attainment by ensuring satisfactory rates of retention and graduation in education and training, the latter reaching as high as 97% for some types of programmes[30] Three-year programmes in secondary VET. Sources: NRC C.1.3 and ETF database.
. The data on early leavers from education which ETF collected to benchmark North Macedonia against the EU 2020 targets in education and training also indicates that this priority was successful well beyond compulsory education. In 2017 the rate of early leavers from education among young people aged 18 to 24 was 8.5%, well below the average of 10.6% for the EU in that year (Table 3).

However, labour market data also suggests that for the years since 2008, those with secondary education degrees were also the most numerous among the short-term unemployed. If in North Macedonia low or no education is a distinct feature of long-term unemployment and inactivity (see Section 3.1.1), then a secondary education degree is a common attribute of short-term joblessness: it is the highest educational achievement of 56.1% of people in that group (Makstat, 2017).

Statements in the national report confirm the observations from this data. VET and secondary education in North Macedonia (of which VET is an integral part – see Annex 2) appear to be inclusive, effective, and supportive of student success and graduation results[31] NRF C.1.1.
. They also promote a relatively smooth progression to higher education, as attested by a boom in higher education enrolment over recent years and a tertiary attainment rate of over 30% (Table 3). At the same time, this does not seem to translate to a comparable degree of employability or success with transition to higher levels of education. In 2017, the employment rate of graduates from secondary general education and VET was only 41.6% on average[32] ETF database.
. In 2018, the rate of transition from VET to higher levels of education dropped when the authorities abolished a hitherto widely used arrangement for admission to higher education without students needing to take entrance exams[33] NRF A.2.1.
.

These findings may appear handpicked to some extent and problems with transition to employment can be due to a number of factors beyond education. However, the findings undoubtedly challenge the reported success of actions to grow educational attainment through retention and student success, in initial VET and secondary education more broadly. The next section discusses some of the policy reasons for this state of affairs.

There are a number of limitations in the conditions and practices of teaching and learning in VET, which include problems with the quality of infrastructure, the shortage of teaching and training materials, insufficient preparation of teachers, and large class sizes. The list also includes a challenge with the quality of students enrolling in VET, which like in many other countries is the least attractive educational option for many and a traditional destination for low- and the lowest-performing students, often from disadvantaged or otherwise challenging backgrounds. The Education Strategy for 2018–2025 also notes that there is a large percentage of pupils with insufficient levels of integration and preparedness who enrol in VET and require special attention (MESRM, 2018).

The transformation of VET and secondary education into a compulsory segment of education vested a qualitatively new form of obligation in providers and their staff who, as a newly integral part of the compulsory system, had a legal responsibility to see their students through to graduation or otherwise present convincing evidence of non-performance. Unfortunately, the introduction of compulsory secondary education was purely legislative, unaccompanied by supporting measures. Teaching and learning conditions remained largely the same as did the challenges and needs of students whose parents now had a legal obligation to send their children to education and training and see them through to graduation. The Education Strategy for 2018–2025 (MESRM, 2018) has only now committed to addressing these conditions in detail.

This development seems to have had a significant impact in the area of internal quality assurance. As noted earlier, the national report suggests that it is marked by arbitrariness and that the information it delivers about the education and training achievement of students is not considered trustworthy by stakeholders.

At the time of preparation of this assessment, the only form of regular evaluation of student advancement in VET and general education was classroom assessment, which is administered by the teachers and known to be unreliable because of the propensity to succumb to parental pressure and 'help' students graduate by inflating grades, to ensure their 'successful' progression through education[34] NRF C.1.1 and D.3.2. See also State Examination Centre (2013).
.

Indeed, in 2015 less than 3% of 15-year-olds in North Macedonia repeated a grade, a rate four times lower than the average rate of repetition in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (OECD, 2016). The NRF implies that almost all students graduate with good to excellent grades[35] NRF C.1.1.
, even on the secondary school leaving exams (State Matura) a result which is in stark contradiction with the outcomes of external assessments, such as OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), and also with the outcomes of students in terms of employability and progression, as discussed before. According to PISA, less than 1% of 15-year-olds in North Macedonia achieve high and highest proficiency in mathematics and reading, while the share of high performers on the State Matura is about 70% (Table 3 and Table 5).

Table 5: Distribution of students by performance in PISA (mathematics, reading) and at the State Matura (average for all subjects), share of all participating students

Notes: PISA data from 2015. State Matura data from 2012.

Sources: PISA 2015 database and MESRM, 2012

The problem of grade inflation and subjectivity in assessment is so prevalent that it led to the introduction of external testing between 2013 and 2017 as a way to control and sanction the assessment decisions of teachers (MESRM, 2004), a measure which has since been dropped due to protests by parents and teachers.

Among the most detrimental implications of this practice is that the broader problem with unsatisfactory quality of VET outcomes goes largely undetected until after graduation/completion of training. Only then do the shortfalls of education and training become evident, for example in occasional tracer studies[36] See NRF C.3.1 for data on the perceptions of VET and higher education graduates about the relevance of their education.
or statements in employers' surveys, comments by higher education professionals who have VET graduates on their courses, and as seen in below-average performance of students (including of those in VET) in international assessments. Essentially, the practice and the policy gaps which are motivating it lead to a postponement of problems and not to their resolution, shifting the risk of failure further down the road and beyond the schools, instead of resolving that risk within them.

Probably the most far-reaching damage, however, is to the credibility of credentials delivered by VET, which may be distrusted by external stakeholders (e.g. employers)[37] See NRF B.1.7
who are all aware of the likely bias in quality assurance and classroom assessment results.

Empirical research suggests that skills and social outcomes can be affected by numerous complementary factors beyond formal education. A major factor is the availability of opportunities for learning and development after the completion of formal schooling or study, as many essential skills for the social outcomes and professional success of individuals must be nurtured over a lifetime and in addition to formal education and qualifications (Vera-Toscano et al., 2017).

To make this happen, North Macedonia has declared AET a priority and is working on integrating it into the mainstream of its education reforms. The technical basis for that was created with the adoption of the Law for Adult Education in 2008 and a number of secondary laws and amendments, which defined the key terms and responsibilities in the area of AET and stipulated the requirements and procedures for the approval (verification) of programmes and AET providers, as well as the certification of AET trainers[38] For the full text of the law in Macedonian, see http://cov.gov.mk/2485-2/ (accessed on 3 February 2019).
.

In addition, the Education Strategy for 2018–2025 (MESRM, 2018) and the drafts of two further strategies – on AET and LLL – all declare AET to be a transversal element of national education next to pre-school, primary, and secondary education, as well as VET, higher education and research[39] NRF A.2.4.
. These steps have been complemented by donor-supported initiatives to pilot AET solutions and raise capacity for their delivery to those in need, including through the recent development of new programmes[40] NRF B.1.7.
.

Data on participation suggests that the AET priority has failed to gain traction[41] NRF A.2.3 and A.3.4.
, despite international support and a decade of commitment to these highly relevant plans. In fact, those who might benefit from it the most participate the least: Figure 6 shows that participation is equal to zero for those above the age of 40 of both genders, and that there is a drastic decline in participation after people have completed their compulsory education.

Figure 6: Participation in adult education and lifelong learning, by age group and gender (2017)

Εικόνα

Note: Population by age group participating in formal or non-formal learning activities, undertaken on an ongoing basis with the aim of improving the knowledge and skills of each individual, as a share of the same age group.

Sources: Calculations based on data from Makstat (2016 and 2017).

Less educated are practically excluded from opportunities to upgrade their skills and knowledge (Table 6). They do not take part in formal AET programmes, and a mere 3% in that group are reported as having taken advantage of non-formal AET opportunities which, according to the NRF, are the predominant form of adult education in North Macedonia[42] NRF A.2.3.
. The table also shows that people with higher education are the primary beneficiaries of opportunities for personal and professional development through AET. The national report adds that the typical participant in adult education is also likely to be employed: in 2016, some 79% of participants in adult education had a job[43] Ibid.
.

Table 6: Population OF working age which participates in adult education, by level of educational attainment and type of ADULT EDUCATION

Note: Data from adult education survey respondents aged 25 to 64.

Source: Calculations based on data from Makstat (2016).

One could perhaps argue that the low effectiveness of AET policies at the lower end of the educational attainment spectrum is due to the difficulty of reaching out to certain segments of the population, such as inactive people or those living in rural areas, because they are ordinarily beyond the reach of public bodies in charge of human capital development. They are also less likely to have the means and incentives to invest on their own in personal and professional development. Still, education and training for adults in North Macedonia is failing even in more structured and formal settings, such as the labour market services provided to registered jobseekers (Figure 7). Of the 102 394 unemployed in 2017, only 7 469 (3.5% of the total) have participated in training and the average rate of participation since 2013 has been a mere 2.9%.

The national Torino Process report provides some hints about the possible reasons for such findings and they all concern gaps in policy design and implementation, as will be described next. They include provision of AET which is insufficiently regulated and quality assured; a fragmented offer which is confusing for potential beneficiaries, policy planners, and external partners; limited public funding and provider involvement; and neglect of second chance education despite its potential to be influential for a substantial share of the population who have an educational disadvantage.

Adult education provision appears to be regulated only loosely, despite a seemingly extensive state apparatus for steering, monitoring and control[44] It includes the Centre for Adult Education, its Steering Committee composed of representatives of various line ministries, the chamber of commerce and others, a Council for Adult Education, and the State Inspectorate for Education. See also Law on Adult Education, Section II and NRF A.2.2.
. The national report and the information collected through the adult education and labour force surveys of 2016 and 2017 all indicate that in practice, almost any natural or legal person can become a provider of adult education[45] See also Law on Adult Education of 2008, Article 5.
, with or without a licence (verification), and enjoy considerable autonomy over the course design and content[46] NRF E.1.1.
.

Figure 7: Registered jobseekers, by total number and participation in training for unemployed PEOPLE

Εικόνα

Source: ETF database and Employment Service Agency of North Macedonia.

At the time of preparation of this assessment in the first quarter of 2019, for instance, the public database of the Centre for Adult Education (CAE), which is responsible for verification of special programmes for AET in North Macedonia, had 786 formal and non-formal programmes on file, which were provided by a total of 666 providers of various organisational size, institutional profile, legal form, mandates, business model, and experience with the provision of training. Only two of the 666 providers and 406 of the 786 programmes on offer were listed as licensed (verified), and there were only 18 certified AET trainers for the country. The national Torino Process report also notes that there is no proper quality assurance in place[47] NRF A.3.4.
.

Table 7 provides a snapshot of this remarkable and somewhat confusing diversity. It shows the type of providers to which employers have outsourced the education and training of their employees, and the type of providers chosen by individuals of working age who report having recently participated in AET and training, of which some 30% was non-formal.

It is not obvious what the reasons are for the permissive regulatory stance, but the finding is consistent with a broader pattern of limited interference and involvement in AET by the state; this is a surprising finding, given the strong strategic and legislative commitment of authorities in North Macedonia to the contrary.

This detachment manifests itself in different ways. Table 7 suggests that, although AET is formally part of the education system and its provision is within the competence and mandate of public providers of education and VET, their involvement in it is limited[48] NRF A.2.3.
. For example, public providers accounted for only about 13% of the AET provided on behalf of employers. The NRF also notes a gap in capacity of the Ministry of Education and Science and other line ministries, which have added AET and LLL to the portfolios of existing and already overstretched structural units with little capacity to handle the task and the challenges that go along with it[49] NRF A.2.2.
^. Finally, public funding for AET is marginal. In 2017 it amounted to only 0.4% of public spending on education[50] NRF A.3.4.
.

Table 7: Adult education and training providers and courses, by type and coverage

Notes: 1. Year of reference 2015; 2. Year of reference 2016.

Sources: Makstat database (http://makstat.stat.gov.mk) and Makstat (2016).

Such limitations by authorities and entities operating on their behalf limit the impact of AET on the prospects of people with educational and employability disadvantages.

First and probably most obvious is that the offer is rich and confusing when it comes to provider diversity. There is no clarity about how the current capacity for provision of AET in North Macedonia matches (or not) the priorities of the state policy, who is providing what, and, from there, how to mobilise the offer in a more effective way, for instance by prioritising the provision of specific content to specific groups of beneficiaries.

Second, the limited public funding and provider involvement, as well as some regulatory deficiencies, create a bias in access to AET to the disadvantage of people with lower education levels and/or no work. Part of the problem is that most of the AET on offer requires a minimum of ISCED 3 for admission, which excludes prospective candidates with lower educational attainment.

In addition, the bulk of the cost of AET provision is carried by private investment from employers and the learners themselves, which means that AET benefits only those who can afford it: individuals with sufficient earnings and employers which see it as a long-term investment in their more promising employees (Table 8). It is not surprising to note that 78% of AET beneficiaries are professionals who are in employment and have a higher education degree. The bias of AET provision in favour of more affluent learners and businesses represents a considerable departure from the declared goals of education and (draft) adult education strategies.

Table 8: Employee participation in work-related training, by source of funding and educational attainment (2016)

Note: Data for employees aged 25 to 64.

Source: Makstat (2016).

Finally, the limited involvement of public providers who have methodological and teaching experience means that the AET field is dominated by private providers, many of which are ordinarily not in the business of education and training and might not have the experience needed for the design and administration of courses for people from different (disadvantaged) backgrounds, ages, and walks of life. Having a for-profit orientation, they also have little financial incentive to work with such people, many of whom need remedial and second chance education which is known to be costly and time-consuming (especially for private providers) (CEDEFOP, 2013), and is largely underdeveloped in North Macedonia[51] NRF B.1.5.
. Besides, the legislation stipulates that such education can only be offered by verified providers[52] Law on Adult Education, Articles 17 and 18.
, of which the country has only two, as noted before.

The problems and practices discussed in Section 3.1.2 of this report suggest that in North Macedonia, some of the basic elements of quality assurance, such as classroom assessment, are failing because they are unreliable and untrustworthy.

The discussion in this chapter also noted that over-marking is a form of ill-fated response to a strategic imperative in support of human capital development through educational attainment, which aims at preventing early leaving and drop-out by letting students graduate irrespective of actual performance. A complementary but more technical problem is the weak or unclear connection between standards of learning and achievement in different subjects, the grading criteria, and the assessment practices of teachers. As a result, the assessment of learning outcomes in North Macedonia does not reflect what graduates really know and can do.

National authorities and stakeholders acknowledge the problem by stating that the system of quality assurance in secondary VET is at its early stage of development. They also note that the assessment of learning outcomes is inconsistent and propose addressing this as part of a broader effort to improve the quality of education and training (MESRM, 2018).

The ETF confirms the importance of this priority and recommends the authorities work on improving the reliability and accuracy of quality assurance in VET, in particular of classroom assessment. An element to look into would be the adequacy of expectations and criteria of student success in VET. The graduation exams, for instance, appear to have been designed with academic disciplines in mind, which might not be fair to what VET students are learning.

The analysis in Section 3.1.2 described a degree of detachment of state bodies and public providers when it comes to AET and LLL, and noted some of the negative consequences, such as bias in access and limited effectiveness in addressing national priorities for human capital development.

The ETF recommends that the authorities reinforce the involvement of public providers in this area, because it may bring important advantages over the present situation. It will create an additional channel of monitoring and steering of developments in the domain of AET, which will allow the authorities to ensure that at least some of the AET provision is aligned (and stays aligned) with key strategic priorities concerning human capital development, such as second chance (remedial) education and the eradication of adult illiteracy. At the time of this assessment, both priorities were largely neglected. North Macedonia already has public provider capacity that can be mobilised to that end.

In the same vein, the ETF recommends the authorities consider the introduction of incentives, for instance tax breaks, for private providers that offer AET training in line with national priorities for human capital development. Access to such schemes for providers should be made conditional on the licensing and verification of their training offer.

It is concerning to note that most of the offerings which may help to grow educational attainment and develop human capital beyond formal schooling are provided in the form of courses and by (private) providers who are not checked/verified. The reasons for this are not evident, but one part of the challenge seems to be the permissive interpretation of the Law on Adult Education, which results in an oversaturation of providers, limits the transparency of their offer, and leads to a de facto privatisation of the sector without a proper system of control and verification. The ETF thus recommends a stronger, more coordinated approach to the regulation of private providers than is the case now, for instance by introducing a baseline criteria for institutions (public and private) that wish to become providers and upgrading the mechanism of verification into a system of licensing and external quality assurance for AET.

This should include strengthening institutional capacity for coordination of AET, a problem which the ETF recommends is addressed with some urgency. The current arrangement in which the strategic planning and coordination is split between numerous state institutions, while the day-to-day coordination in this area is assigned to a structural unit with a disproportionately big portfolio, is not likely to be sustainable in the long run.

Table 6 showed that informal and non-formal learning is the predominant form of adult learning for those with low educational attainment levels. In an effort to capitalise on the existing knowledge and skills of this segment of the population of working age, the Council on Adult Education has initiated work on a system for the validation of non-formal and informal learning, which at the time of this assessment has been integrated as a priority in the National Education Strategy and the reforms of the qualifications system[54] NRF C.1.6.
. This is a positive development and a recommendation which this assessment fully backs.

The improvement of career guidance services is among the most prominent, employability-related measures for students in formal education which North Macedonia is implementing, across all levels of education. This is in line with practice in other countries and the EU, which consider career guidance to be among the most essential links between education, training, and the labour market (see ETF, 2011 and Council of Europe, 2018).

However, in North Macedonia the translation of this commitment into reality has been patchy, especially at the school level[80] See MESRM (2018), chapters 3 and 5.4 and NRF B.1.2 and B.2.2.
, hampered by several factors which need a long overdue solution. These include insufficient staffing of career guidance services in schools, which leads to gaps in the availability of that service at the provider level, as well as underutilisation of information about labour market demand.

The ETF recommends the mobilisation of national and donor support and partnerships for the development of capacity and incentives in education and training for the interpretation and use of skills and labour market data for policy planning. The goal of this is to ensure that the information can reach the final beneficiaries – the students – reliably and on time.

The efforts to capitalise on the available evidence on labour market needs must be complemented with expanded coverage of career guidance services to all education providers in the country. In the process, priority should be given to levels of education which are most affected by unemployment risks, which at present is secondary education and VET.

North Macedonia has committed to the promotion of digital literacy and the wide use of information and communications technology solutions in and for education and training. The ETF suggests expanding this priority to include the promotion of digital entrepreneurship as a specific focus of career guidance.

Other countries in the region and in Central and Eastern Europe more broadly are already capitalising on this opportunity (Perryman, 2018), and the EU has declared its support for this policy priority as well (European Commission, 2018b). There is evidence that over the past few years, entrepreneurship is increasingly often complemented by leveraging digital solutions in novel ways, such as social media and analytics, which shifts the traditional ways of starting and doing business, but also opens new opportunities that are accessible to almost everyone (Parker et al., 2016).

To complement the ongoing work on professionalisation of teaching[81] NRF D.2.4.
, the ETF recommends reconsidering the rules of recruitment of teaching staff in order to open more flexible pathways into teaching for practitioners from the world of work.

Despite demand for practical training, in North Macedonia at present it is not possible to enter teaching with professional experience which is outside education. In contrast, a number of EU countries, such as Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Netherlands and France, offer alternative pathways into teaching in their public schools and especially in VET, where experience in another profession can be a requirement for employment as a teacher. In many countries, one can even start teaching without formal teaching qualifications.

The ETF also suggests reassessing the conditions of involvement of employers in VET and specifically in the provision of practical training/WBL in order to identify gaps and fill them with clear guidance, described in appropriate legislation. This should include addressing:

• The lack of incentives for employers and numerous open questions concerning the practical implementation of WBL, such as how to connect on-the-job training with the school-based part of the VET programmes, what the distribution or responsibilities for funding are, what the employment status and responsibilities of trainees are, and how their progress and success should be assessed.
• The missing investment in system-level capacity to provide key avenues of engagement, such as WBL, internships, and qualifications system development.

The national report of North Macedonia notes that in recent years, the authorities have made efforts to increase the involvement of trade unions and employers' organisations and use their input when planning policies for education, including those that are meant to strengthen the link to the labour market, notably through work on the National Qualification Framework (NQF) and the development of occupational standards and mechanisms for practical training[82] NRF B.1.7.
. The report also remarks that progress is insufficient and that there is a need to improve the mechanisms of involvement and coordination through further investment in NQF development.

The ETF concurs with this conclusion and suggests prioritising work on the NQF as a major instrument for establishing solid connections between education, training and the world of work, promoting consensus and trust regarding learning outcomes in VET, and promoting stakeholder involvement and transparency for the end-users of VET qualifications.