Some of the key indicators on human capital, as well as the performance of Montenegro against the EU benchmarks in education and training, suggest that, as in most countries, there are challenges at all stages of this value chain. This chapter endeavours to identify and evidence these various issues, using relevant data.
According to the relatively new Human Capital Index, developed by the World Bank to measure the amount of human capital that a child born today can expect to attain by age 18, given the risks of poor health and education that prevail in the country where they live, a child born in Montenegro today will reach only 62% of its productive potential when he or she grows up, compared to children born in countries with the best education and healthcare. In addition, the World Bank research shows that on average children can expect to complete 12.4 years of schooling by age 18. However, this is only equivalent to 8.6 years of effective education when taking into account the quality of learning[2] For more details, see: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/montenegro
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Table 2: Selected indicators of human capital, Montenegro
Year |
Value |
|
(1) Population structure (% of total) |
||
0–24 |
2015 |
32.0% |
25–64 |
2015 |
54.1% |
65+ |
2015 |
13.9% |
0–24 |
2015 |
29.1% |
25–64 |
2025(1). |
52.7% |
65+ |
2025(1). |
18.2% |
(2) Average years of schooling |
2017 |
11.3 |
(3) Expected years of schooling1 |
2017 |
14.9 |
(4) Learning-adjusted years of schooling2 |
2017 |
8.6 |
(5) Adult literacy3 |
2015 |
98.7% |
(6) Global Innovation Index Rank (x/126) |
2018 |
52 |
(7) Global Competitiveness Index Rank4 (x/137) |
2017–18 |
71 |
(8) Digital Readiness Index Rank (x/118) |
2018 |
m |
(9) Occupational mismatch |
||
% of upper secondary graduates working in low-skilled jobs (International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) 9)5 |
2016 |
8.2% |
Male |
2016 |
6.7% |
Female |
2016 |
11.4% |
% of tertiary graduates working in semi-skilled jobs (ISCO 4–9) |
2016 |
10.9% |
Male |
2016 |
13.9% |
Female |
2016 |
8.8% |
Notes: m=missing; (1). Projection.
Sources: (1) United Nations (UN) Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2017 revision; (2) United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (Unesco) Institute for Statistics (UIS) database; (3) and (4) World Bank, Human Capital Index, 2018; (5) Unesco, UIS database; (6) World Economic Forum (WEF), The Global Innovation Index, 2018; (7) WEF, Global Competitiveness Index 4.0, 2018; (8) Cisco, Country Digital Readiness, 2018; (9) ETF, skills mismatch measurement in the ETF partner countries.
1 Expected years of schooling is calculated as the sum of age-specific enrolment rates between ages 4 and 17. Age-specific enrolment rates are approximated using school enrolment rates at different levels: pre-primary enrolment rates approximate the age-specific enrolment rates for 4- and 5-year-olds; the primary rate approximates for 6- to 11-year-olds; the lower secondary rate approximates for 12- to 14-year-olds; and the upper secondary approximates for 15- to 17-year-olds.
2 Learning-adjusted years of school are calculated by multiplying the estimates of Expected Years of School by the ratio of most recent Harmonised Test Score to 625, where 625 corresponds to advanced attainment on the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study test.
3 Percentage of population aged 15 years and over who can both read and write with understanding a short simple statement on his/her everyday life. Generally, 'literacy' also encompasses 'numeracy', the ability to make simple arithmetic calculations.
4 The index is based on technology adoption, start-up environment, human capital, technology infrastructure, business and government investment, business foundation, and basic needs.
5 This indicator is based on comparisons of the ratio of people with a given education level (International Standard Classification of Education – ISCED) working at an inappropriate skill level (measured by the ISCO) to all workers within that ISCED level.
One can distinguish two main areas of human capital-related challenges: those linked to the use of human capital, namely in the business world, hence linked to the labour market situation, and those related upstream to the 'production' or formation of human capital.